Dynamic Game-Theoretic Models of Electric Power Markets and their Vulnerability

市场力量、发电充足性和网络约束下电力市场的脆弱性问题日益受到市场参与者、政策制定者和公众的关注。虽然价格形成和投资本质上是动态过程，但它们通常使用静态经济和博弈论模型进行研究。这种对滞后性、预期和调整过程的忽视，可能会对市场结构和设计的拟议变化的影响得出扭曲的结论。为了研究和克服这种扭曲，需要(a)具有战略行为的电力市场参与者之间动态相互作用的现实模型，以及(b)设计能够处理现实电力系统高维的有效计算方法。提出的研究和教学方法有四个目标：a)制定传输受限电力市场定价和发电的动态博弈论模型，适用于各种竞争环境和市场结构；b)开发有效的算法来解决模型；c)使用现实数据对模型和算法进行演示和测试；d)开发整合博弈论、经济学和电力系统的教育课程。该项目有几个更广泛的影响，包括对教育和公共政策的贡献。我们将为电力市场建模开发动态优化和微分博弈课程。这些材料将作为专业教程提供，并通过项目网站分发给教育界。我们的模型具有显著提高监管机构、市场经营者和利益相关者能力的潜力。

The issues of market power, generation adequacy, and vulnerability innetwork-constrained electric power markets are of increasing concern tomarket participants, policy makers, and the general public. Althoughprice formation and investment are inherently dynamic processes, theyare usually studied using static economic and game theoretic models.This disregarding of lags, expectations, and adjustment processes mayyield distorted conclusions about the effects of proposed changes tomarket structure and designs. To investigate and overcome thisdistortion, there is a need for (a) realistic models of dynamicinteractions among strategically behaved electric power marketparticipants, and (b) the design of efficient computationalmethods that can handle the high dimensionality of realisticpower systems.The proposed research and pedagogy have four objectives:a) formulation of dynamic game theoretic models of pricing and generationfor transmission-constrained electric power markets, for a variety ofcompetitive circumstances and market structuresb) development of efficient algorithms for solving the modelsc) demonstration and testing of models and algorithms using realistic datad) development of educational curricula integrating game theory, economics,and electric power systems.The project has several broader impacts, including contributions to education and public policy. We will develop curricular offerings in dynamic optimization and differential games for the modeling of electric power markets. This material will be made available as a professional tutorial and distributed to the educational community via the project website. Our models hold the potential of significantly enhancing the capability of regulatory agencies, market operators, and stakeholders.