SBIR Phase II: Confusion to Precision: Tools for Assessing Expert Uncertainty
SBIR 第二阶段:从混乱到精确:评估专家不确定性的工具
基本信息
- 批准号:9530293
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 29.99万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:1996
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:1996-09-01 至 1999-02-28
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
9530293 Sonnenblick Quantitative models, virtually all of which are subject to uncertainties and most of which must rely on expert opinion for estimating key uncertain input quantities, are increasingly widely used to support the making of key decisions in public and private sectors. This Small Business Innovation Research Phase II project from Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. describes research seeking to develop and evaluate an innovative decision support system software tool to assist experts in expressing their uncertain knowledge in the form of probability distributions. There is a growing recognition on the part of builders and users of quantitative models of the need for a such a tool, but heretofore usage has been constrained by the lack of availability of a tool that is both easy to use and designed to overcome the difficulties people have expressing uncertainty in meaningful and coherent ways. In Phase I, the practicality of two innovative methods was developed and experimentally established: (1) animated density functions and (2) verbal probability phrases, such as probable or very seldom. In Phase II, a prototype tool for probability assessment will be refined, providing these two and six other assessment methods with associated calibration and debiasing techniques...These methods will be evaluated experimentally to measure ease of learning and use, effort required, confidence in results, and reliability and calibration of the resulting distributions. These results will be used to guide users in choosing the most cost-effective methods to suit their needs and skills. Methods to assess multivariate distributions and multimedia courseware on probability assessment will also be integrated into the package. The expression of expert judgment in the form of subjective probability distributions is becoming accepted for risk analysis in areas where uncertainty is critical, including finance, oil and gas exploration, risks to the environment, medical diagnosis, and bidding decisions . This project will contribute effective means of eliciting beliefs regarding the likelihood of outcomes, and thus it will serve to enhance existing capability of quantifying expected costs and benefits in a variety of contexts.
定量模型几乎所有都受到不确定性的影响,其中大部分必须依靠专家意见来估计关键的不确定输入数量,越来越广泛地用于支持公共和私营部门的关键决策。Lumina决策系统公司的小企业创新研究第二阶段项目描述了寻求开发和评估创新决策支持系统软件工具的研究,以帮助专家以概率分布的形式表达他们的不确定知识。定量模型的构建者和用户越来越认识到需要这样一种工具,但迄今为止,由于缺乏一种既易于使用又旨在克服人们以有意义和连贯的方式表达不确定性的困难的工具,使用受到了限制。在第一阶段,开发并实验建立了两种创新方法的实用性:(1)动画密度函数和(2)口头概率短语,如probable或very rarely。在第二阶段,将改进概率评估的原型工具,为这两种和六种其他评估方法提供相关的校准和去偏技术……这些方法将通过实验进行评估,以衡量学习和使用的难易程度、所需的努力、对结果的信心以及结果分布的可靠性和校准。这些结果将用于指导用户选择最具成本效益的方法,以满足他们的需要和技能。多元分布的评估方法和概率评估的多媒体课件也将整合到包中。在金融、石油和天然气勘探、环境风险、医疗诊断和投标决策等不确定性至关重要的领域,以主观概率分布形式表达专家判断正逐渐被接受用于风险分析。这个项目将提供有效的方法,使人们对结果的可能性产生信念,因此,它将有助于提高在各种情况下量化预期成本和收益的现有能力。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Max Henrion其他文献
Max Henrion的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Max Henrion', 18)}}的其他基金
Mathematical Sciences: Reduced-Form Modelling for Integrated Assessment
数学科学:综合评估的简化模型
- 批准号:
9523589 - 财政年份:1995
- 资助金额:
$ 29.99万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Practical Decision Analytic Methods For Large Knowledge- Based Systems
大型知识系统的实用决策分析方法
- 批准号:
9120330 - 财政年份:1992
- 资助金额:
$ 29.99万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Qualititive Interfaces for Quantitative Models
定量模型的定性接口
- 批准号:
8807061 - 财政年份:1988
- 资助金额:
$ 29.99万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
A Comparison of Methods for Representing Uncertainty in Expert Systems (Information Science)
专家系统中表示不确定性的方法比较(信息科学)
- 批准号:
8603493 - 财政年份:1986
- 资助金额:
$ 29.99万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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