Mathematical Sciences: Reduced-Form Modelling for Integrated Assessment

数学科学：综合评估的简化模型

• 批准号: 9523589
• 负责人: Max Henrion
• 金额: $ 28万
• 依托单位: Institute for Decision Systems Research
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-10-01 至 1998-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9523589&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mathematical; Sciences; Reduced; Form; Modelling

Integrated assessment is increasingly used as a way to bridge the gap between science and policy in environmental problems. Models of each aspect of a complex problem are often too cumbersome to integrate directly. Instead, it is often more appealing to develop reduced-form models for each component model that are small enough to be comprehensible, flexible, and easily linked to one another. A reduced-form model provides approximately the same behavior as the model from which it is extracted in a much more compact and comprehensible form. The goal of this project is to develop and evaluate techniques to help modellers analyze their models and construct reduce-form models. The specific objectives are: 1. To design and prototype a modellers' workbench to facilitate specification and documentation of the inputs, outputs, and assumptions of existing models of various types and sizes; 2. To provide a range of existing and new sampling techniques to generate scenarios to exercise these models; 3. To provide a range of existing and new model analysis techniques to identify key inputs and parameters, identify nonmonotonic and regions of qualitatively different behavior, and so help develop reduced-form models; and 4. To evaluate these techniques experimentally by application to the development of reduced-form models and integrated assessment models, and so to provide guidance on which techniques are most valuable and for what kinds of models. This project is supported under the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment funding opportunity.

综合评估越来越多地被用作弥合以下方面差距的一种方式： 环境问题的科学与政策。复合体各方面的模型 这些问题通常太麻烦而不能直接集成。相反， 为每个组件模型开发简化形式的模型，这些模型足够小， 可理解的，灵活的，容易相互联系。简化形式的模型提供了 近似相同的行为，从模型中提取，它是在一个更 简洁易懂的形式。该项目的目标是开发和评估 技术，以帮助建模者分析他们的模型，并构建减少形式的模型。 具体目标是：1.设计和原型建模者的工作台，以促进规范和 记录现有模型的输入、输出和假设， 各种类型和尺寸; 2.提供一系列现有的和新的采样技术， 这些模型的应用场景; 3.提供一系列现有的和新的模型分析技术， 关键输入和参数，定性识别非单调和区域 不同的行为，因此有助于开发简化形式的模型;以及4.通过应用于开发，对这些技术进行实验评估 简化形式模型和综合评估模型，从而提供 关于哪些技术最有价值以及适用于哪种模型的指导。 该项目得到了综合评估方法和模型的支持 融资机会。