Population Contact and the Spread of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic in the Central Subarctic

本研究探讨了影响1918年加拿大中部亚北极地区几个土著社区流感流行死亡人数的因素。该项目使用数学流行病学的方法来探索人类的流动性如何将疾病从一个地方传播到另一个地方，以及一旦疾病发生，流动性和其他因素如何影响社区内的死亡率。具体问题包括季节性差异和社区间差异对社会生活各方面的影响，如旅行模式、人口规模和密度、对流行病的反应（如隔离）以及冬季住区结构与皮毛捕获活动的影响。该项目以共同调查人员以前关于1918年美洲流感流行和其他传染病流行的工作（Herring）和传染病地理传播模型（Sattenspiel）为基础。它结合了定量方法和理论以及以数据为导向的民族历史分析的优势，并将导致新的流行病学模型，其中包括人类互动的更现实的结构。这些模型可以适用于研究其他社区的其他疾病。该项目将对数学建模方法的使用进行评估，以补充对历史和当代人口的传统人口、民族历史和流行病学分析。

This research explores factors that influenced the death toll from the 1918 influenza epidemic in several Aboriginal communities in the central Canadian Subarctic. The project uses the methods of mathematical epidemiology to explore how human mobility carries diseases from place to place, and also how mobility and other factors influence mortality within a community, once the disease has arrived. Specific questions include the effects of seasonal and between-community differences in aspects of social life, such as travel patterns, population size and density, responses to the epidemic (e.g., quarantine), and winter-time settlement structure in conjunction with fur-trapping activities. The project builds on previous work of the co-investigators on the 1918 influenza epidemic and other infectious disease epidemics in the Americas (Herring) and on modeling the geographic spread of infectious diseases (Sattenspiel). It combines strengths in both quantitative methodology and theory and data-oriented ethnohistorical analysis and will lead to new epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic structures within which humans interact. These models can be adapted for studying other diseases in other communities. The project will enable assessment of the use of mathematical modeling methods to complement traditional demographic, ethnohistorical, and epidemiological analyses of historic and contemporary populations.