Population Contact and the Spread of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic in the Central Subarctic

亚北极中部地区的人口接触和 1918-19 流感大流行的传播

• 批准号: 9615945
• 负责人: Lisa Sattenspiel
• 金额: $ 7.21万
• 依托单位: University of Missouri-Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-06-01 至 2000-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9615945&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Population; Contact; Spread; 1918; 19

This research explores factors that influenced the death toll from the 1918 influenza epidemic in several Aboriginal communities in the central Canadian Subarctic. The project uses the methods of mathematical epidemiology to explore how human mobility carries diseases from place to place, and also how mobility and other factors influence mortality within a community, once the disease has arrived. Specific questions include the effects of seasonal and between-community differences in aspects of social life, such as travel patterns, population size and density, responses to the epidemic (e.g., quarantine), and winter-time settlement structure in conjunction with fur-trapping activities. The project builds on previous work of the co-investigators on the 1918 influenza epidemic and other infectious disease epidemics in the Americas (Herring) and on modeling the geographic spread of infectious diseases (Sattenspiel). It combines strengths in both quantitative methodology and theory and data-oriented ethnohistorical analysis and will lead to new epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic structures within which humans interact. These models can be adapted for studying other diseases in other communities. The project will enable assessment of the use of mathematical modeling methods to complement traditional demographic, ethnohistorical, and epidemiological analyses of historic and contemporary populations.

这项研究探讨了影响加拿大亚北极地区中部几个土著社区1918年流感流行死亡人数的因素。 该项目使用数学流行病学的方法来探索人类流动如何将疾病从一个地方带到另一个地方，以及一旦疾病到达，流动和其他因素如何影响社区内的死亡率。 具体问题包括社会生活各方面的季节性和社区间差异的影响，如旅行模式、人口规模和密度、对流行病的反应（例如，检疫），以及冬季定居结构与毛皮捕捉活动相结合。 该项目建立在1918年流感流行和美洲其他传染病流行（Herring）以及传染病地理传播建模（Sattenspiel）的共同研究者之前的工作基础上。 它结合了定量方法和理论以及以数据为导向的民族历史分析的优势，并将导致新的流行病学模型，其中包括人类互动的更现实的结构。 这些模型可以适用于研究其他社区的其他疾病。该项目将能够评估数学建模方法的使用情况，以补充对历史和当代人口的传统人口统计学、民族历史学和流行病学分析。