Population Contact and the Spread of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic in the Central Subarctic

这项研究探索了影响1918年流感疫情死亡人数的因素，这些因素发生在加拿大亚洲区中部的几个土著社区。该项目使用数学流行病学的方法来探索人类流动如何将疾病从一个地方传播到另一个地方，以及一旦疾病到来，流动性和其他因素如何影响社区内的死亡率。具体问题包括社会生活各方面的季节性差异和社区间差异的影响，如旅行模式、人口规模和密度、对流行病的反应(例如，检疫)以及冬季住区结构与捕杀毛皮活动的结合。该项目建立在1918年美洲流感疫情和其他传染病流行(鲱鱼)和传染病地理传播模型(StenSpiel)合作调查员先前工作的基础上。它结合了定量方法和理论的优势以及面向数据的民族历史分析，并将导致新的流行病学模型，其中纳入了更现实的结构，在其中人类相互作用。这些模型可用于研究其他社区的其他疾病。该项目将能够评估使用数学建模方法来补充对历史和当代人口的传统人口学、人种史和流行病学分析。

This research explores factors that influenced the death toll from the 1918 influenza epidemic in several Aboriginal communities in the central Canadian Subarctic. The project uses the methods of mathematical epidemiology to explore how human mobility carries diseases from place to place, and also how mobility and other factors influence mortality within a community, once the disease has arrived. Specific questions include the effects of seasonal and between-community differences in aspects of social life, such as travel patterns, population size and density, responses to the epidemic (e.g., quarantine), and winter-time settlement structure in conjunction with fur-trapping activities. The project builds on previous work of the co-investigators on the 1918 influenza epidemic and other infectious disease epidemics in the Americas (Herring) and on modeling the geographic spread of infectious diseases (Sattenspiel). It combines strengths in both quantitative methodology and theory and data-oriented ethnohistorical analysis and will lead to new epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic structures within which humans interact. These models can be adapted for studying other diseases in other communities. The project will enable assessment of the use of mathematical modeling methods to complement traditional demographic, ethnohistorical, and epidemiological analyses of historic and contemporary populations.