The Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches

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Abstract ATM-9616582 Chang, Ping Texas A & M University ATM-9616439 Penland, Cecile University of Colopado Title: An Investigation of the Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches This proposal will deal with the relative importance of nonlinear dynamics and stochastic processes in the short term climate variability in the tropics, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At issue is whether underlying dynamics of the variabilities are stable, how much nonlinear structure is imbedded in them and what impact the different dynamics have to the predictive skill of a model. To shed light on these issues, it is proposed to conduct a series of numerical experiments with both statistical and dynamical models. This research will enhance our knowledge of the nature of ENSO and might strengthen our ability to predict ENSO.