A Critique of Discretionary Monetary Policy and an Analysis of Alternative Institutional Arrangements

CHARI 9632054这个项目包括研究货币政策与结果之间的传导机制。第一部分量化了战后美国数据中产出和通胀的波动在多大程度上是由于货币政策是在相机抉择的情况下进行的。这个问题是在一类动态的、定量的、有目的的政策制定者的一般均衡模型中解决的。起诉这些模型是为了确定替代的可行制度安排可以在多大程度上改善货币政策的实施。这里描述的初步模型传达了关于货币政策在没有承诺的情况下实施的经济体的特征的有趣见解。一种这样的见解是，自由裁量权可能会加剧波动性，增加经济的不稳定性。另一个原因是，将货币政策权力下放给一位更不喜欢通胀的央行行长，而不是一位仁慈的规划者，也可能会增加不稳定。这些洞察力表明，像上世纪80年代的大通胀这样的事件是谨慎行事的必然结果。这些模型暗示，限制政策制定者灵活性的各种制度改革将导致更令人满意的结果。本项目的第二部分由两类货币传导机制的量化模型组成。一种是建立在稳固的微观经济基础上的工资契约模式。其他研究则错开了定价。这两种类型都是为了解决现有模型的不足，即货币扰动不会导致产出出现持续的大幅波动。该项目还研究了各国收入巨大不平等的根源。

Chari 9632054 This project consists of research on the transmission mechanism linking monetary policy to outcome. The first part quantifies the extent to which fluctuations in output and inflation in postwar US data are due to the fact that monetary policy is conducted under discretion. This issue is addressed in a class of dynamic, quantitative, general equilibrium models with purposeful policy makers. These models are sued to determine how much the conduct of monetary policy can be improved by alternative feasible institutional arrangements. The preliminary models described here convey interesting insights about the characteristics of economies in which monetary policy is conducted without commitment. One such insights is that discretion can exacerbate volatility and increase instability in the economy. Another is that delegating monetary policy authority to a central banker who dislikes inflation more than the benevolent planner may also increase instability. These insights suggest that episodes like the great inflation of the 1980s were an inevitable consequence of discretion. The models imply that various institutional reforms limiting the flexibility of policymakers would lead to more desirable outcomes. The second part of this project consists of two types of quantitative models of the monetary transmission mechanism. One consists of models of wage contracting which rest on secure microeconomic foundations,. The other studies staggered price-setting. Both types are designed to address the short-coming of existing models that monetary disturbances do not lead to large, persistent fluctuations in output. The project also studies the sources of the vast inequality of incomes among countries.