A Critique of Discretionary Monetary Policy and an Analysis of Alternative Institutional Arrangements

沙里9632054 本项目研究货币政策与结果之间的传导机制。 第一部分量化了战后美国数据中产出和通胀的波动在多大程度上是由于货币政策是在自由裁量的情况下实施的。 这个问题是在一类动态的，定量的，一般均衡模型与有目的的政策制定者。 这些模型被用来确定替代的可行的制度安排可以在多大程度上改善货币政策的执行。 这里描述的初步模型传达了关于货币政策在没有承诺的情况下实施的经济体特征的有趣见解。 其中一个观点是，自由裁量权可能加剧经济的波动性和不稳定性。 另一个原因是，将货币政策授权给一个比仁慈的计划者更不喜欢通胀的央行行长，也可能增加不稳定性。 这些见解表明，像20世纪80年代的大通胀这样的事件是谨慎的必然结果。 这些模型意味着，限制决策者灵活性的各种体制改革将导致更理想的结果。 第二部分是货币政策传导机制的两类定量模型。 一种是建立在可靠的微观经济基础上的工资合同模式。 其他研究错开了定价。 这两种类型都是为了解决现有模型的缺点，即货币扰动不会导致产出的大幅度持续波动。 该项目还研究了各国收入严重不平等的根源。

Chari 9632054 This project consists of research on the transmission mechanism linking monetary policy to outcome. The first part quantifies the extent to which fluctuations in output and inflation in postwar US data are due to the fact that monetary policy is conducted under discretion. This issue is addressed in a class of dynamic, quantitative, general equilibrium models with purposeful policy makers. These models are sued to determine how much the conduct of monetary policy can be improved by alternative feasible institutional arrangements. The preliminary models described here convey interesting insights about the characteristics of economies in which monetary policy is conducted without commitment. One such insights is that discretion can exacerbate volatility and increase instability in the economy. Another is that delegating monetary policy authority to a central banker who dislikes inflation more than the benevolent planner may also increase instability. These insights suggest that episodes like the great inflation of the 1980s were an inevitable consequence of discretion. The models imply that various institutional reforms limiting the flexibility of policymakers would lead to more desirable outcomes. The second part of this project consists of two types of quantitative models of the monetary transmission mechanism. One consists of models of wage contracting which rest on secure microeconomic foundations,. The other studies staggered price-setting. Both types are designed to address the short-coming of existing models that monetary disturbances do not lead to large, persistent fluctuations in output. The project also studies the sources of the vast inequality of incomes among countries.