Financial Frictions, Monetary Policy and Business Cycles: Developing Quantitative Models of Economic Fluctuations

本项目开发商业周期的定量一般均衡模型，以评估货币政策和金融摩擦在产生商业周期中的定量作用。这些模型必须与企业和工厂层面上现有的微观经济证据相一致。这个项目有相当大的经验成分，涉及访问通常不被宏观经济学家使用的数据集。该项目开发了一个新的会计框架，用于进行商业周期分析。这一框架和数据表明，需要建立新的商业周期波动模型。扭曲休闲和消费的边际替代率与劳动边际产量之间关系的因素，称为劳动楔子，以及扭曲要素投入和产出之间关系的因素，称为效率楔子，在经济周期中发挥着重要作用。我们面临的挑战是开发出货币政策和金融摩擦引入劳动力和效率楔子的模型。该项目开发了金融摩擦导致效率楔子的模型。数据显示，在货币紧缩后，小企业的收缩不成比例。开发了一个内生流动性约束模型，其中金融摩擦影响营运资金的使用，特别是对小型公司。大公司受流动性限制的影响较小，因为它们更容易进入公共债务市场。货币紧缩对小企业的影响不成比例，并扭曲了小企业相对于其他投入的营运资金的使用，从而产生了效率楔子。该项目开发了小公司约束大公司垄断力量的模型。金融摩擦对小企业的影响尤为严重。在经济衰退中，金融摩擦加剧，小企业的边际成本相对于大企业上升。经济竞争力下降，由此产生的扭曲表现为劳动力楔子。这个项目主要是实证的。向人口普查局提出的一项要求获得工厂和公司层面广泛详细数据收集的提案已获得批准。该项目分析了企业规模分布的商业周期特征、企业规模的价格成本边际、企业规模的劳动生产率以及企业规模的借贷成本和其他财务约束指标。将利用《制造业年度普查》、《制造业普查》和公开来源的数据，建立一个跟踪工厂行为及其关联公司特征的小组。更广泛的影响：更广泛的影响是该项目将有助于改善商业周期中的货币政策行为。这些项目还将有助于设计针对银行和金融服务业的管制政策，并有助于设计针对新公司和小型公司的政策。

This project develops quantitative general equilibrium models of business cycles to assess the quantitative role of monetary policy and financial frictions in generating business cycles. The models must be consistent with available microeconomic evidence at the firm and plant level. This project has a sizable empirical component that involves accessing datasets typically not used by macroeconomists. The project develops a new accounting framework for conducting business cycle analysis. This framework and the data suggest the need for new models of business cycle fluctuations. Factors that distort the relationship between the marginal rate of substitution in leisure and consumption and the marginal product of labor, called labor wedges, and factors which distort the relationship between factor inputs and output, called efficiency wedges, play large roles over the business cycle. The challenge is to develop models in which monetary policy and financial frictions introduce labor and efficiency wedges.The project develops models in which financial frictions induce efficiency wedges. In the data, small firms contract disproportionately following a monetary tightening. A model of endogenous liquidity constraints is developed in which financial frictions affect the use of working capital, particularly for small firms. Larger firms are less affected by liquidity constraints because they have greater access to public debt markets. A monetary tightening disproportionately affects small firms and distorts the use of working capital relative to other inputs by small firms, and thereby produces an efficiency wedge. The project develops models in which small firms discipline the monopoly power of large firms. Financial frictions disproportionately affect small firms. In recessions, financial frictions worsen and small firms' marginal costs rise relative to those of large firms. The economy becomes less competitive and the resulting distortions manifest themselves as labor wedges.The project is primarily empirical. A proposal to the Census Bureau requesting access to an extensive detailed collection of data at the plant and firm level has been approved. This project analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the size distribution of firms, price-cost margins by firm size, labor productivity by firm size as well as borrowing costs and other measures of financial constraints by firm size. A panel tracking the behaviour of plants and the characteristics of their associated firms will be constructed using data from the Annual Census of Manufactures, the Census of Manufactures and data from publicly available sources.Broader Impacts: The broader impacts are that the project will help improve the conduct of monetary policy over the business cycle. The projects will also help in the design of regulatory policy aimed at the banking and financial services industry and in the design of policies aimed at new and small firms.