Stochastic Linear Modeling of the Planetary Wave Climate of the Stratosphere

9708194罗宾逊博士将使用随机强迫线性模型研究平流层行星波--它们的变异性、光谱以及与纬向流的相互作用。这一方法最近已成功应用于对流层风暴路径，将使PI和他的同事能够研究对流层和平流层纬向流以及静止行星波对瞬变和行进平流层波的完整和无偏谱的影响。将探讨的具体问题包括：(1)瞬变波和驻波活动对驱动纬向流的相对重要性；(2)平流层和对流层纬向流对平流层波活动的控制程度，以及纬向流的年际变化在确定波活动年际变化方面的重要性；(3)波-波相互作用在调节平流层波活动方面的重要性；(4)在没有年际变化边界条件的情况下，波驱动和纬向流的预期年际变化。罗宾逊博士是一位在大气动力学研究中有效运用线性理论的理论家。他将通过将他的理论结果与观察结果进行比较来评估这种方法的成功。该奖项由气候动力学和大型动力气象项目共同支持。

9708194 Robinson Dr. Robinson will study stratospheric planetary waves - their variability, spectra, and interactions with the zonal flow - using a stochastically forced linear model. This approach, which recently has been successfully applied to tropospheric storm tracks, will permit the PI and colleagues to examine the influence of tropospheric and stratospheric zonal flows and stationary planetary waves on a full and unbiased spectrum of transient and traveling stratospheric waves. Specific issues that will be explored are: (1) the relative importance of transient and stationary wave activity in driving the zonal flow; (2) the extent to which stratospheric wave activity is controlled by stratospheric and tropospheric zonal flows, and the importance of interannual variability of the zonal flow in determining interannual variability in wave activity; (3) the importance of wave-wave interactions in regulating stratospheric wave activity; and (4) the expected interannual variability in wave-driving and the zonal flow in the absence of interannually varying boundary conditions. Dr. Robinson is a theoretician with a history of effectively employing linear theory in the study of atmospheric dynamics. He will evaluate the success of this approach by comparing his theoretical results with observations. This award is supported jointly by the Climate Dynamics and Large-scale Dynamic Meteorology Programs.