RAPID: Testing Storm Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using UPSCALE Global Model Output

RAPID：使用 UPSCALE 全球模型输出测试风暴路径对分辨率和气候变化的敏感性

• 批准号: 1724566
• 负责人: Walter Robinson
• 金额: $ 10.16万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-04-15 至 2020-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1724566&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Testing; Storm; Track; Sensitivity

Day-to-day weather over much of the world is driven by extratropical cyclones traveling along the storm tracks of the middle latitudes. Accurate weather forecasts thus require numerical models with high enough resolution to represent critical details of the cyclones and their evolution, and it is important to understand what constitutes adequate resolution for this purpose. Adequate resolution is likewise required to produce simulations which capture the response of cyclones and storm tracks to changes in global temperature, but it is again unclear what constitutes adequate resolution. This is particularly an issue as the expense of such simulations increases strongly with resolution.Previous work by the PIs suggests that high resolution is necessary to represent small pockets of intense precipitation within the cyclones that promote cyclone intensification and produce more energetic cyclones. In addition, cyclones in the high resolution simulations are more intense under warmer conditions, due to the increase in latent heating that accompanies the rise in specific humidity with temperature. But these results are somewhat inconclusive as the simulations were performed with a regional model due to lack of access to global models with adequate resolution.This project addresses the role of small-scale precipitation features in the intensification of cyclones, and the resulting potential for more energetic cyclones in a warming climate, using high-resolution simulations carried out as part of the United Kingdom UPSCALE project (UPSCALE is short for UK on PRACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk, where PRACE is the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe). The UPSCALE project has produced global simulations at medium and high resolutions (up to 25km), both for present-day climate conditions and for warmer climates which are projected to occur due to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulations are ideally suited for the PIs' research although they were produced for other reasons.The project is funded through the RAPID mechanism to expedite the research so that it can be conducted according to the timeline of the ongoing UK project. A key issue in the timing is that UPSCALE is a precursor to the more intensive PRIMAVERA project, which will produce global simulations with resolutions as high as 5km. PRIMAVERA is the European contribution to the HighResMIP sub-project of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6), which will inform the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Near-term results of this project can thus play a critical role in defining the research agenda of PRIMAVERA and informing the assessment report.The work has broader impacts due to the dominant influence of extratropical cyclones on sensible weather over the US and other midlatitude regions, and the value of guidance regarding possible increases in cyclone intensity due to climate change. The work also builds an international scientific collaboration which allows US PIs access to high-resolution simulations produced at substantial cost. In addition, the project provides support and training for a graduate student, thereby providing for the next generation workforce in this research area.

全世界大部分地区的日常天气是由沿着中纬度风暴轨道旅行的室外气旋驱动的。 因此，准确的天气预报需要具有足够高分辨率的数值模型，以表示旋风的关键细节及其演变，并且重要的是要了解什么构成足够的分辨率为此目的。 同样需要足够的分辨率来产生模拟，从而捕获旋风和风暴轨道对全球温度变化的响应，但尚不清楚什么构成了足够的分辨率。 这尤其是一个问题，因为此类模拟的费用随着分辨率而大大增加。PIS的工作表明，高分辨率对于代表旋风中的巨大降水量是必要的，从而促进旋风分离器的强化，从而促进气旋强化并产生更伟大的旋风。 此外，由于在温暖的条件下，高分辨率模拟中的旋风更加激烈，因为潜在加热的增加伴随着特定的湿度随温度的升高。 但是，由于缺乏足够分辨率的全球模型，该项目解决了小规模的降水特征在旋风分子的强化中的作用，因此这些结果是有点不确定的，该项目解决了小规模的降水特征在加热气候中使用高分辨率模拟在英国的PROTS STSCALE（英里大范围）中的作用，并可能导致更充满活力的旋风在高温下进行。全球环境风险气候的天气可辨别模拟，在欧洲，Prace是高级计算的合作伙伴关系）。 高档项目在当今的气候条件下以及预计由于温室气体浓度升高而预计发生的温暖气候下，在中等和高分辨率（最高25公里）下进行了全球模拟。 这些仿真非常适合PIS的研究，尽管它们是由于其他原因而生产的。 时间安排的一个关键问题是，高档是更密集的Primavera项目的先驱，该项目将产生以高达5公里的分辨率产生全球模拟。 Primavera是欧洲对耦合模型对比项目6（CMIP6）的大量副标题的贡献，该项目将为下一个关于气候变化的政府间小组的评估报告提供信息。 因此，该项目的近期结果可以在定义Primavera的研究议程并告知评估报告中起着至关重要的作用。由于气体外气旋对美国和其他中期区域中明智的天气的主要影响，这项工作具有更大的影响，以及由于气候变化而导致的指导价值以及指南的价值。 这项工作还建立了国际科学合作，使我们可以访问以大量成本生产的高分辨率模拟。此外，该项目为研究生提供了支持和培训，从而为该研究领域的下一代劳动力提供了支持。