RAPID: Warming Holes--Can Climate Models Represent the Variability and Sources of Regional Temperature Trends in the Continental United States?

RAPID:变暖洞——气候模型能否代表美国大陆区域温度趋势的变化和来源?

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1126022
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 3万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2011-05-01 至 2013-10-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project addresses the region of zero or negative summertiime temperature trends which occurs over the midwestern US and is commonly referred to as a "warming hole". Work performed under the grant seeks to determine whether the warming hole occurs as the result of the natural variability associated with low-frequency modes, or whether it is caused by some anthropogenic climate forcing (aerosols, for example). The project has three main tasks: 1) evaluating the extent to which the 20th century climate simulations prepared for the AR5 are capable of reproducing the warming hole; 2) assessing whether warming holes, defined as regions of reduced warming over multiple decades, are captured in the internal variability of the models, and, if so, whether they occur in preferred locations, such as the U.S. Midwest; 3) determining whether the model simulations capture the observed local relationships between regional U.S. temperatures and clouds and precipitation and the global teleconnections to sea-surface temperatures.The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. The ability of climate models to represent the warming hole is important for assessing the reliability of future midwest temperature projections from the models.
这是政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC AR5)中鼓励对气候模式模拟进行诊断分析的致同事信(NSF 11-006)资助的16个快速响应(Rapid)项目之一。在这些项目中进行的研究预计将导致更详细的模式相互比较,更好地理解稳健模式行为,更好地理解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。该项目解决了美国中西部夏季气温为零或负趋势的地区,通常被称为“变暖洞”。在该资助下开展的工作旨在确定变暖空洞是由与低频模态相关的自然变率造成的,还是由某些人为气候强迫(例如气溶胶)造成的。该项目有三个主要任务:1)评估为AR5准备的20世纪气候模拟在多大程度上能够重现变暖空洞;2)评估模式的内部变率是否捕获了变暖空洞(定义为几十年来变暖减少的地区),如果是,它们是否发生在首选地点,如美国中西部;3)确定模式模拟是否捕获了观测到的美国区域温度与云和降水之间的局部关系以及全球与海面温度的遥相关。该项目的更广泛影响在于它对IPCC第五次评估报告的支持,该报告旨在向全球决策者提供有关气候变化及其后果的信息。气候模式表征变暖空洞的能力对于评估模式对未来中西部温度预估的可靠性非常重要。

项目成果

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Walter Robinson其他文献

Walter Robinson的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Walter Robinson', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: North American Warm-season Extremes in a Changing Climate: Large-scale Drivers and Local Feedbacks
合作研究:气候变化中的北美暖季极端事件:大规模驱动因素和当地反馈
  • 批准号:
    2203515
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
RAPID: Testing Storm Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using UPSCALE Global Model Output
RAPID:使用 UPSCALE 全球模型输出测试风暴路径对分辨率和气候变化的敏感性
  • 批准号:
    1724566
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Extratropical Persistent Anomalies on a Warmer Earth: Connections to Extratropical Storms and Storm Tracks
温暖地球上的温带持续异常:与温带风暴和风暴路径的联系
  • 批准号:
    1560844
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: The Arctic Springtime Transition: Dynamics, Impacts, and Future Changes
合作研究:北极春季过渡:动态、影响和未来变化
  • 批准号:
    1107651
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
CAREER: Multi-scale Interactions of Waves, Currents and Morphology with Application to Rip Currents
职业:波浪、海流和形态的多尺度相互作用及其在裂流中的应用
  • 批准号:
    0845957
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: A Diagnostic and Modeling Study of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Arctic Oscillation
合作研究:北极涛动平流层-对流层耦合的诊断和建模研究
  • 批准号:
    0001325
  • 财政年份:
    2000
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Low-frequency Variability in the Extratropical Atmosphere
温带大气中的低频变化
  • 批准号:
    0002724
  • 财政年份:
    2000
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Dynamics of Atmospheric Response to Midlatitude SST Anomalies
大气对中纬度海温异常的响应动态
  • 批准号:
    9903503
  • 财政年份:
    1999
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Stochastic Linear Modeling of the Planetary Wave Climate of the Stratosphere
平流层行星波气候的随机线性模型
  • 批准号:
    9708194
  • 财政年份:
    1997
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Low Frequency Variability in the Extratropical Atmosphere
温带大气中的低频变化
  • 批准号:
    9628850
  • 财政年份:
    1996
  • 资助金额:
    $ 3万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

相似国自然基金

基于Steger-Warming FVS 的长管道气液两相瞬变流计算及其水锤的气阀防护研究
  • 批准号:
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Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Alpine plants as a model system for biodiversity dynamics in a warming world: Integrating genetic, functional, and community approaches
合作研究:BoCP-实施:高山植物作为变暖世界中生物多样性动态的模型系统:整合遗传、功能和社区方法
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Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Alpine plants as a model system for biodiversity dynamics in a warming world: Integrating genetic, functional, and community approaches
合作研究:BoCP-实施:高山植物作为变暖世界中生物多样性动态的模型系统:整合遗传、功能和社区方法
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