Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making

政策制定者越来越需要预测性信息，以帮助指导有争议的环境问题的政治决策，包括全球气候变化，放射性废物处理以及减轻飓风和地震等自然灾害。由于这种需求，地球科学的主要财政和智力资源现在集中在预测自然和人为环境现象未来行为的模型和技术的发展上。与此同时，研究预算变得越来越紧张。因此，对研究资金和活动进行有效的优先排序和分配的重要性日益增加，及时和有效的政治决策的必要性也日益增加。虽然准确、相关的预测可能有助于决策者应对某些环境问题，但预测研究的误用或滥用可能会破坏政策目标，浪费稀缺的财政和智力资源，并损害科学事业的整体可信度。例如，对特定问题的政治反应可能会因预期准确的预测数据的可用性而推迟，即使这种反应的成功并不取决于预测知识。 无论是决策者还是科学家，都不具备必要的信息，无法了解侧重于预测的研究是否、如何以及何时能够有效地应用于政策制定。这个项目开始了一个系统分析的过程，可以提供这种信息。两个研讨会将召集科学家，政策制定者和政策分析师一起开发，目前，并在预测地球科学研究（过去和正在进行）的案例历史整合。讲习班的重点将是界定原则和标准，以帮助决策者判断科学预测应用于与环境有关的不同类型的政治和社会问题的潜在价值。这些原则和标准可能是必要的科学和环境政策的设计是负责任的，科学效率和社会建设性。 为此目的，本项目的一个重要组成部分将是通过出版物和介绍向有关的科学界和决策界传播讲习班的结果。

Policy makers increasingly demand predictive information that can help guide political decision-making on controversial environmental issues that include global climate change, radioactive waste disposal, and mitigation of natural hazards such as hurricanes and earthquakes. As a result of this demand, major financial and intellectual resources in the earth sciences are now focused on the development of models and techniques for predicting the future behavior of natural and human-induced environmental phenomena Environmental problems and controversies are becoming more pervasive and severe. At the same time, research budgets are becoming tighter. Thus, the importance of effective prioritization and allocation of research funds and activities is increasing, as is the need for timely and effective political decision making. Whereas accurate, relevant predictions may help decision makers respond to some environmental problems, the misapplication or misuse of prediction research can undermine policy goals, waste scarce financial and intellectual resources, and erode the overall credibility of the scientific enterprise. For example, political response to given issue may be deferred in anticipation of the availability of accurate predictive data, even when the success of such a response does not depend on predictive knowledge. Neither policy makers nor scientists possess information necessary for understanding if, how, and when research focusing on prediction can be productively applied to policy making. This project begins a process of systematic analysis that can provide such information. Two workshops will be convened to bring scientists, policy makers, and policy analysts together to develop, present, and integrate case histories in predictive earth science research (past and ongoing). Workshops will focus on the delineation of principles and criteria that can help policy makers judge the potential value of scientific prediction as applied to different types of political and social problems related to the environment. Such principles and criteria may be necessary for the design of science and environmental policies that are fiscally responsible, scientifically efficient, and socially constructive. Towards this end, a significant component of this project will be the dissemination of workshop findings to the relevant scientific and policy-making communities through publications and presentations.