Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making

决策者越来越需要预测性信息，以帮助指导在有争议的环境问题上的政治决策，这些问题包括全球气候变化、放射性废物处理以及减轻飓风和地震等自然灾害。由于这种需求，地球科学领域的主要财政和智力资源现在都集中在开发预测自然和人为引起的环境现象的未来行为的模型和技术上。环境问题和争议正变得越来越普遍和严重。与此同时，研究预算也越来越紧张。因此，有效地确定研究经费和活动的优先次序和分配的重要性正在增加，及时和有效的政治决策的必要性也在增加。尽管准确、相关的预测可能有助于决策者应对一些环境问题，但对预测研究的误用或误用可能破坏政策目标，浪费稀缺的财政和智力资源，并侵蚀科学事业的整体可信度。例如，对某一问题的政治反应可能会因预期获得准确的预测性数据而推迟，即使这种反应的成功并不取决于预测性知识。决策者和科学家都不具备必要的信息，无法理解以预测为重点的研究是否、如何以及何时能够有效地应用于政策制定。这个项目开始了一个可以提供这些信息的系统分析过程。将召开两次研讨会，将科学家、决策者和政策分析人员聚集在一起，发展、介绍和整合预测地球科学研究（过去和正在进行的）的历史案例。讲习班将侧重于阐述原则和标准，这些原则和标准可以帮助决策者判断科学预测在应用于与环境有关的不同类型的政治和社会问题时的潜在价值。这些原则和标准对于制定财政上负责任、科学上有效和社会上具有建设性的科学和环境政策可能是必要的。为此目的，该项目的一个重要组成部分将是通过出版物和专题介绍向有关科学界和决策界传播讲习班的研究结果。

Policy makers increasingly demand predictive information that can help guide political decision-making on controversial environmental issues that include global climate change, radioactive waste disposal, and mitigation of natural hazards such as hurricanes and earthquakes. As a result of this demand, major financial and intellectual resources in the earth sciences are now focused on the development of models and techniques for predicting the future behavior of natural and human-induced environmental phenomena Environmental problems and controversies are becoming more pervasive and severe. At the same time, research budgets are becoming tighter. Thus, the importance of effective prioritization and allocation of research funds and activities is increasing, as is the need for timely and effective political decision making. Whereas accurate, relevant predictions may help decision makers respond to some environmental problems, the misapplication or misuse of prediction research can undermine policy goals, waste scarce financial and intellectual resources, and erode the overall credibility of the scientific enterprise. For example, political response to given issue may be deferred in anticipation of the availability of accurate predictive data, even when the success of such a response does not depend on predictive knowledge. Neither policy makers nor scientists possess information necessary for understanding if, how, and when research focusing on prediction can be productively applied to policy making. This project begins a process of systematic analysis that can provide such information. Two workshops will be convened to bring scientists, policy makers, and policy analysts together to develop, present, and integrate case histories in predictive earth science research (past and ongoing). Workshops will focus on the delineation of principles and criteria that can help policy makers judge the potential value of scientific prediction as applied to different types of political and social problems related to the environment. Such principles and criteria may be necessary for the design of science and environmental policies that are fiscally responsible, scientifically efficient, and socially constructive. Towards this end, a significant component of this project will be the dissemination of workshop findings to the relevant scientific and policy-making communities through publications and presentations.