Integrated micro- and macroscopic Aeronautical Risk Assessment based on technical, procedural and human performance factors with limited parameter sets

项目一期（为期三年），研究基于仿真的大型交通枢纽机场终端区ATM风险评估方法。基于故障/事件树分析（蝴蝶结）的经典安全评估方法无法满足该领域的具体需求，因为无法系统地预测不可预见/未知的故障模式。然而，对于同质的航路空中交通管制部门，细粒度的领结模型被证明是合适的，其代价是大参数和状态空间。因此，转移到更复杂的终端区是不可行的。相比之下，基于智能体的模拟技术是一个很有前途的选择，它展示了已经具有有限参数集的紧急行为模式。基于此，提出并实现了基于智能体的微观组件和基于导航性能的宏观组件的综合安全评估模型（iSBM）。然而，被称为领结域的重要因果关系的转移导致了一个巨大的参数空间，有效地限制了对比较分析的验证（将排队模型应用于实际雷达数据集）。下一个项目阶段的目标是研究iSBM所需的详细程度，以便以有用、有效的方式减少参数空间。由此产生的、经过充分验证的iSBM应提供有关操作概念的安全相关设计问题的答案，例如程序规划，特别是在早期设计阶段。

During the first project phase (lasting three years), simulation-based ATM risk assessment methods for the terminal area of large traffic hub airports were researched. Classic safety assessment methodology based on fault/event-tree analyses (bow-tie) fall short of the specific needs in this domain, as the prediction of unforeseen/unknown failure modes is not covered methodically. Yet, for homogeneous en-route air traffic control sectors, fine-grained bow-tie models were shown to be suitable, with the price of large parameter and state spaces. A transfer to the more complex terminal area is thus not feasible. In contrast, agent-based simulation techniques which exhibit emergent behavioral patterns already with limited parameter sets are a promising alternative. Consequently, an integrated safety assessment model (iSBM) consisting of an agent-based microscopic component and a navigation performance based macroscopic component was conceived and implemented. However, the transfer of significant causal interrelations well-known the bow-tie domain resulted in a vast parameter space, effectively constraining validation to the comparative analyses (application of queuing models to real-world radar data sets). The aim of the next project phase is to research the required level of detail of the iSBM in order to reduce the parameter space in a useful, efficient manner. The resulting, fully validated iSBM shall provide an answer to safety-relevant design questions concerning operational concepts, e.g. procedure planning, especially in early design phases.