Integrated micro- and macroscopic Aeronautical Risk Assessment based on technical, procedural and human performance factors with limited parameter sets

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During the first project phase (lasting three years), simulation-based ATM risk assessment methods for the terminal area of large traffic hub airports were researched. Classic safety assessment methodology based on fault/event-tree analyses (bow-tie) fall short of the specific needs in this domain, as the prediction of unforeseen/unknown failure modes is not covered methodically. Yet, for homogeneous en-route air traffic control sectors, fine-grained bow-tie models were shown to be suitable, with the price of large parameter and state spaces. A transfer to the more complex terminal area is thus not feasible. In contrast, agent-based simulation techniques which exhibit emergent behavioral patterns already with limited parameter sets are a promising alternative. Consequently, an integrated safety assessment model (iSBM) consisting of an agent-based microscopic component and a navigation performance based macroscopic component was conceived and implemented. However, the transfer of significant causal interrelations well-known the bow-tie domain resulted in a vast parameter space, effectively constraining validation to the comparative analyses (application of queuing models to real-world radar data sets). The aim of the next project phase is to research the required level of detail of the iSBM in order to reduce the parameter space in a useful, efficient manner. The resulting, fully validated iSBM shall provide an answer to safety-relevant design questions concerning operational concepts, e.g. procedure planning, especially in early design phases.