Integrated micro- and macroscopic Aeronautical Risk Assessment based on technical, procedural and human performance factors with limited parameter sets

基于技术、程序和人员绩效因素以及有限参数集的综合微观和宏观航空风险评估

• 批准号: 119520566
• 负责人: Professor Dr.-Ing. Hartmut Fricke
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Luftfahrt und Logistik
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2008-12-31 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/119520566?language=en
• 关键词: Integrated; micro; macroscopic; Aeronautical; Risk

During the first project phase (lasting three years), simulation-based ATM risk assessment methods for the terminal area of large traffic hub airports were researched. Classic safety assessment methodology based on fault/event-tree analyses (bow-tie) fall short of the specific needs in this domain, as the prediction of unforeseen/unknown failure modes is not covered methodically. Yet, for homogeneous en-route air traffic control sectors, fine-grained bow-tie models were shown to be suitable, with the price of large parameter and state spaces. A transfer to the more complex terminal area is thus not feasible. In contrast, agent-based simulation techniques which exhibit emergent behavioral patterns already with limited parameter sets are a promising alternative. Consequently, an integrated safety assessment model (iSBM) consisting of an agent-based microscopic component and a navigation performance based macroscopic component was conceived and implemented. However, the transfer of significant causal interrelations well-known the bow-tie domain resulted in a vast parameter space, effectively constraining validation to the comparative analyses (application of queuing models to real-world radar data sets). The aim of the next project phase is to research the required level of detail of the iSBM in order to reduce the parameter space in a useful, efficient manner. The resulting, fully validated iSBM shall provide an answer to safety-relevant design questions concerning operational concepts, e.g. procedure planning, especially in early design phases.

在第一个项目阶段（持续三年）中，研究了基于模拟的ATM风险评估方法，用于大型交通中心机场的终端区域。基于故障/事件树分析（BOW-TIE）的经典安全评估方法缺乏该领域的特定需求，因为对不可预见/未知故障模式的预测没有被有条不紊地涵盖。然而，对于同质的通行空中交通管辖区，细颗粒领带模型被证明是合适的，价格为大参数和州空间。因此，转移到更复杂的终端区域是不可行的。相反，基于代理的仿真技术已经表现出具有有限参数集的新兴行为模式，这是一个有前途的选择。因此，构思和实施了由基于代理的显微镜组件和基于导航性能的宏观组件组成的集成安全评估模型（ISBM）。但是，众所周知的重要因果关系的转移导致巨大的参数空间，从而有效地将验证限制为比较分析（将排队模型应用于现实世界雷达数据集的应用）。下一个项目阶段的目的是研究ISBM所需的细节水平，以便以有用，有效的方式减少参数空间。由此产生的全面验证的ISBM应为与安全概念有关的安全设计问题提供答案，例如程序计划，特别是在早期设计阶段。