Scientific Method, Stochastic Dynamics & Deterministic Forcing: Integrated Modelling, Field Research, & Educational Outreach to Understand Population Dynamics of the B

9734472 Eggleston 动植物种群经常以看似混乱的方式波动。基本挑战包括制定种群模型，以区分不同环境力量对种群动态的精确影响，并确定生物反馈机制与环境之间的相互作用。 该项目通过全面综合的现场观察和实验、长期丰度数据的种群建模以及水流的计算机可视化，解决确定北卡罗来纳州蓝蟹（Callinectes sapidus）种群动态的过程。 总体假设是，主要以热带气旋形式出现的环境扰动将显着改变生物反馈机制，导致幼蟹和成年蟹的丰度出现大幅波动。 学生/教师充实计划的总体目标是通过将公立学校、州和学术科学家与共同的研究目标联系在一起，提高科学素养，并让学生和教师参与传统上在科学领域代表性不足的科学方法。 渔业物种是理想的焦点，因为它们对沿海国家具有重要的文化和经济重要性，并且是过度捕捞、水质退化和栖息地丧失等关键问题的核心。

9734472 Eggleston Populations of animals and plants often fluctuate in a seemingly chaotic manner. Fundamental challenges include formulating population models that can tease apart the precise effects of different environmental forces on population dynamics, and determining the interaction between biological feedback mechanisms and the environment. This project addresses processes that determine population dynamics in the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in North Carolina, through comprehensive and integrated field observations and experiments, population modeling of long- term abundance data, and computer visualizations of water currents. The overall hypothesis is that environmental perturbations, primarily in the form of tropical cyclones, will markedly alter biological feedback mechanisms, producing large fluctuations in abundance of juvenile and adult crabs. The overall goal of the student/teacher enrichment program is to enhance scientific literacy, and involve students and teachers in the scientific method that have traditionally been under-represented in science, by linking public schools, state, and academic scientists together with a common research goal. Fisheries species are an ideal focal point since they are of significant cultural and economic importance to coastal counties, and lie at the center of such critical issues as overfishing, water quality degradation, and habitat loss.