Estimation of Gross Domestic Product for Colonial North America: The Lower South as a Pilot Project

这项拟议的工作将对18世纪英国北美殖民地的一个地区的国内生产总值(GDP)进行估计。猜测估计方法被应用于下南部地区的经济，该地区由今天的北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州组成。这项对该区域的研究是一个试点项目，目的是更明确地表明这些方法可以成功地应用于殖民时期，并改进估计所用的程序。如果成功，这些改进的技术将应用于其他主要殖民地区：新英格兰、中部殖民地和切萨皮克。有了这些对所有四个地区的估计，作者将把它们结合起来，得到殖民地作为一个整体的估计，这可以与19世纪初的国内生产总值序列联系起来。下南部的国内生产总值数字将使用猜想估计法编制。在这个试点项目中，对殖民经济增长的猜测进行了提炼和扩展。这些猜测将利用过去几十年积累起来的关于南部南部殖民地财富和生活水平的丰富而广泛的文献，并将利用遗嘱样本和其他已经汇编的数据集。还编制了带注解的遗嘱样本书目和一个数据库，其中载有与估算该区域国内生产总值有关的变量数据。这些估计考虑了美洲原住民的经济活动。无论人们是否认为美洲原住民应该被视为殖民地经济的一部分，还是应该被视为一个单独的国家和贸易伙伴，他们的经济活动及其对殖民者的影响都应该被考虑在内。美洲原住民在数量上太重要了，不容忽视，特别是在18世纪早期。这项研究包括更清楚和更坚定地确定印第安人部落在南方南部的规模和位置、他们与殖民者经济互动的性质和程度，以及对他们的生产进行估计，以便他们的活动可以与殖民者的活动结合在一起，或者保持分离，就像印第安人是另一个贸易国一样。通过提供对英美经济的全面估计，创建一个数据库以方便其他学者的查询，并将印度的经济活动纳入猜测中，该项目将整合提供这一出口导向型地区分析的学者的各种努力。

The proposed work will produce estimates of gross domestic product for one region of the British North American colonies at benchmark dates in the 18th century. Conjectural estimating methods are applied to the economy of the Lower South region, an area composed of the present day states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. This study of that region is a pilot project to show more conclusively that these methods can be successfully applied to the colonial period, and to improve the procedures used in the estimation. If successful , these improved techniques will be applied to the other major colonial regions: New England, the Middle colonies, and the Chesapeake. With those estimates for all four regions the authors would then combine them to obtain estimates for the colonies as a whole which could be linked to the GDP series for the early 19th century. GDP figures for the Lower South will be constructed using the conjectural method of estimation. In this pilot project, conjectures about colonial economic growth are refined and extended. The conjectures will draw on the rich and extensive literature on wealth and standards of living in the colonies of the Lower South that has accumulated over the past several decades, and will make use of the probate samples and other data sets that have been compiled as well. An annotated bibliography of probate samples and a database containing the data on variables pertinent to estimating GDP for the region is also prepared. The estimates take into account the economic activity of Native Americans. Whether one thinks that Native Americans should be treated as though they were part of the colonial economy or as a separate nation (or nations) and trading partner, their economic activity and its impact on the colonists should be taken into account. Native Americans were simply too important quantitatively to be ignored, especially so in the earlier part of the 18th century. The study includes establishing more clearly and firmly the size and location of the Indian tribes in the Lower South, the nature and extent of their economic interaction with the colonists, and making estimates of their production in such a way that their activity can be combined with that of the colonists or kept separate as though the Indians were another trading nation. By offering comprehensive estimates on the economy of British America, creating a database to facilitate inquiries by other scholars, and incorporating Indian economic activity in the conjectures, this project will integrate the various efforts of scholars who have provided analyses of this export oriented region.