Estimation of Gross Domestic Product Before 1800: The Colonies and States of the Mid Atlantic Region

该项目将在18世纪的基准日期为不列颠北美中部殖民地产生国内生产总值(GDP)和人均GDP的估计，该地区由今天的纽约州、新泽西州、特拉华州和宾夕法尼亚州组成。这项研究遵循了一项关于南下(北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州)经济的试点项目。在完成关于中部殖民地的工作后，调查人员将估计新英格兰和切萨皮克湾地区的国内生产总值，并将所有地区的数字结合起来，以获得整个殖民地的国内生产总值。调查人员还应将这些数字与David(1967)和Weiss(1992和1994)编制的19世纪初的国内生产总值数列联系起来，并与此后各时期国内生产总值的现有估计数联系起来，包括商务部编制的官方数列。该项目将使用David设计并经Weiss修正的估计方法估计国内生产总值，并在下南部试点项目中使用。对中部殖民地的拟议估算，与对下南部殖民地的估算一样，将借鉴过去几十年积累的关于这些殖民地财富和生活水平的丰富而广泛的文献，将利用其他研究人员汇编的遗嘱样本和其他数据集，并将以我们为下南方发现的那种书面证据来补充这项工作。一份有注释的书目、遗嘱认证样本和一个数据库将被准备好，其中包含与估计该地区GDP有关的变量数据，并向其他研究人员提供。这些估计将考虑到美洲土著印第安人的经济活动。无论人们是否认为印度人应该被视为殖民经济的一部分，还是应该被视为独立的国家和贸易伙伴，他们的经济活动及其对殖民者的影响都需要考虑在内。美洲原住民在数量上太重要了，不容忽视。这项拟议的工作将更清楚地确定美洲原住民参与市场的程度，他们与殖民者的经济互动，以及他们创造的产出价值。这个项目将调查美国殖民时期和早期国家时期如何促进国家经济逐步加速进入持续的经济增长。这项工作的广泛影响我们的估计最初将引起经济史学家的最大兴趣，并已被引用在教科书中(例如，休斯和凯恩，2003)。从长远来看，它们将对那些从事经验主义宏观经济学和经济增长的人有用。这项工作最终可以为有关国家经济的公共政策决策提供信息。正如我们对南部南部的初步研究一样，我们将制作对其他研究人员有用的数据库，我们将通过EH Net网站和CD-ROM随时提供这些数据库。该项目也将涉及本科生，主要是作为有偿助理，但正如在试点项目中发生的那样，他们很可能对这个主题产生足够的兴趣，从事自己的研究。这个项目将让代表不足的群体参与这项研究，就像之前由Weiss进行的NSF赞助项目中发生的那样。这项研究的一部分是关于美洲原住民经济史的，这一事实应该会增加其他代表性不足的群体参与并被经济学研究吸引的可能性。此外，我们计划在这项研究中加入美洲原住民部分，将我们的成果提交给多学科会议和研讨会，并以将其传播到更广泛受众的方式传播，就像在试点项目中所做的那样。

The project will produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capitaat benchmark dates in the eighteenth century for the Middle Colonies of British North America, an area composed of the present-day states of New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. This study follows a pilot project on the economy of the Lower South (North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia). After completion of the work on the Middle Colonies, the investigators will estimate GDP for New Englandand the Chesapeake Bay region, and combine the figures for all regions to obtain GDP for the colonies as a whole. The investigators shall also link those figures to the GDP series for the early nineteenth century constructed by David (1967) and Weiss (1992 and 1994) and to existing estimates of GDP for the period since then, including official series produced by the Department of Commerce.The project will estimate GDP by using the method of estimation devised by David and modified by Weiss, and used in the pilot project on the Lower South. The proposed estimates for the Middle Colonies, like those for the Lower South, will draw on the rich and extensive literature on wealth and standards of living in these colonies that has accumulated over the past several decades, will make use of the probate samples and other data sets that have been compiled by other researchers, and will supplement this work with documentary evidence of the sort we found for the Lower South. An annotated bibliography, probate samples and a database containing data on variables pertinent to estimating GDP for the region will be prepared and made available to other researchers.The estimates will take into account the economic activity of Native American Indians. Whether one thinks that Indians should be treated as though they were part of the colonial economy or as separate nations and trading partners, their economic activity and its impact on the colonists needs to be taken into account. Native Americans were simply too important quantitatively to be ignored. The proposed work will establish more clearly the extent of Native Americans' participation in markets, their economic interactions with colonists, and the value of output produced by them.This project will investigate the ways in which the colonial and early national periods of America contributed to the gradual acceleration of the nation's economy into sustained economic growth.Broader Impact of This WorkOur estimates will be of greatest interest to economic historians initially, and are already being cited in textbooks (e.g. Hughes and Cain, 2003). In the longer term they will be of use to those doing empirical macroeconomics and economic growth. This work can eventually inform public policy decisions regarding the nation's economy.As in our pilot study on the Lower South, we will produce databases that will be of use to other researchers, and we will make these readily available via the EH NET website and CD-ROMs.The project will also involve undergraduates, primarily as paid assistants, but as occurred in the pilot project, they are likely to become interested enough in the subject to engage in research of their own. And this project will engage underrepresented groups in this research just as occurred in previous NSF sponsored projects conducted by Weiss. The fact that part of this research is about Native American economic history should increase the likelihood that other underrepresented groups will participate and be attracted to the study of economics. Furthermore, with the Native American component to this research we plan to present our results to multidisciplinary conferences and workshops,and disseminate it in ways that will reach broader audiences, just as was done in the pilot project.