An Experimental Examination of Models of Bounded Rationality
有限理性模型的实验检验
基本信息
- 批准号:9818683
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 18.24万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:1999
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:1999-03-15 至 2003-02-28
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Skepticism about "rational choice theory" outside of economics is based on the conviction that people make mistakes and expect others to behave in a manner that is not perfectly predictable. Economists have started to take these criticisms seriously, and recent theoretical research has identified numerous situations in which even small departures from perfectly-rational decision making can cause a dramatic change in the landscape of expected payoffs. The effects of "bounded rationality" are particularly important in markets or games where the slopes of expected payoff functions are sensitive to parameters that do not affect the underlying structure of the Nash equilibria. This project uses laboratory experiments to evaluate behavior in a series of situations of wide interest to economists: imperfect price competition, coordination, auctions, and interactive models. In each case, the theoretical predictions of both equilibrium and dynamic learning models are derived in a generalized context that spans perfect rationality in one extreme and perfectly random decision making in the other. Anyone who has looked at noisy laboratory data knows that most human behavior lies somewhere in between these extremes, and this intuition can be evaluated by specifying models in a manner that permits econometric estimation of error and learning parameters from laboratory data.The experiments are carefully motivated by "noisy" equilibrium and learning models, so that the treatment changes have no effect on the Nash equilibria, but they do alter the predictions based on models of bounded rationality. Initial data patterns reported in this proposal conform nicely to both the dynamic trajectories and eventual equilibrium levels predicted. One goal of this research is to provide a data base that will stimulate further theoretical work on strategic behavior that is guided by carefully documented empirical regularities.
对经济学之外的“理性选择理论”的怀疑是基于这样一种信念,即人们会犯错误,并期望他人以一种不完全可预测的方式行事。经济学家们开始认真对待这些批评,最近的理论研究已经发现了许多情况,在这些情况下,即使是对完美理性决策的微小偏离也会导致预期收益的巨大变化。“有限理性”的影响在市场或博弈中尤为重要,因为在这些市场或博弈中,预期收益函数的斜率对不影响纳什均衡的基本结构的参数很敏感。 该项目使用实验室实验来评估经济学家广泛感兴趣的一系列情况下的行为:不完全价格竞争,协调,拍卖和互动模型。在每一种情况下,均衡和动态学习模型的理论预测都是在一个广义的背景下得出的,这个背景在一个极端中跨越了完美的理性,在另一个极端中跨越了完美的随机决策。任何一个看过有噪声的实验室数据的人都知道,大多数人类行为都处于这两个极端之间,这种直觉可以通过指定模型来评估,这种方式允许从实验室数据中进行误差和学习参数的计量经济学估计。实验是由“噪声”均衡和学习模型精心激励的,因此治疗的变化对纳什均衡没有影响,但它们确实改变了基于有限理性模型的预测。本提案中报告的初始数据模式与预测的动态轨迹和最终平衡水平都很好地吻合。本研究的一个目标是提供一个数据库,将刺激进一步的理论工作的战略行为,是由仔细记录的经验证据。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Jacob Goeree其他文献
Stable allocations and market design
稳定分配与市场设计
- DOI:
10.1038/492054a - 发表时间:
2012-12-05 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:48.500
- 作者:
Yan Chen;Jacob Goeree - 通讯作者:
Jacob Goeree
Jacob Goeree的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Jacob Goeree', 18)}}的其他基金
Laboratory Studies of Collective Decision Making
集体决策的实验室研究
- 批准号:
0551014 - 财政年份:2006
- 资助金额:
$ 18.24万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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