Evaluating the Impact of Demand Data and Demand Forecasting on Costs in a Supply Chain

9872483Ryan这项拨款为需求数据、需求预测和供应链成本协调的影响分析提供资金。与大多数以前的工作不同，本研究假设客户需求的分布是未知的，并使用预测来估计分布的形状和参数。给定预测技术，将确定供应链中预期成本的界限或近似值。将这些成本与已知需求分布下的预期成本进行比较。这些成本之间的差额将被用来衡量需求数据的价值和预测的影响。还将评估数据量、预测技术和需求过程形式的影响。本研究还将探讨协调库存控制的影响。将建立三个层次的协调模型：(1)信息共享而不协调；(2)信息共享而不协调；(3)信息共享而协调。我们将比较这三种模型的预期成本，以评估信息共享和协调努力对供应链成本的影响。此外，这些成本将用于确定供应链的哪个阶段从协调中获益最多。这一分析的结果将为需求信息的价值和需求预测对供应链成本的影响提供有用的见解。这些模型特别适用于新产品或时尚产品，即需求信息很少的产品，因此已知需求分布的传统假设是不合适的。此外，分析将评估供应链协调的价值，并提供可以诱导供应链成员参与协调工作的方法。鉴于零售商和制造商之间的协调倡议日益普及，本研究将为信息和协调的真正好处提供重要见解。

9872483Ryan This grant provides funding for an analysis of the impact of demand data, demand forecasting and coordination on costs in a supply chain. Unlike most previous work, this research assumes that the distribution of customer demand is unknown and that forecasting is used to estimate the shape and parameters of the distribution. Given the forecasting technique, bounds or approximations for the expected costs in the supply chain will be determined. These costs will be compared with the expected costs under the assumption of known demand distribution. The difference between these costs will be used as a measure of the value of demand data and the impact of forecasting. The impact of the quantity of data, the forecasting technique, and the form of the demand process will also be evaluated. This research will also look at the impact of coordinated inventory control. Three levels of coordination will be modeled: (1) no information sharing and no coordination, (2) information sharing but no coordination, and (3) information sharing and coordination. The expected costs for these three models will be compared to evaluate the impact of information sharing and coordination efforts on costs in the supply chain. In addition, these costs will be used to determine which stages of the supply chain benefit most from coordination. The results of this analysis will provide useful insights on the value of demand information and the impact of demand forecasting on costs in the supply chain. These models are particularly applicable to new products or fashion items, i.e., items for which there is little demand information available, and thus the traditional assumption of known demand distribution is inappropriate. In addition, the analysis will evaluate the value of supply chain coordination and provide methods in which members of the supply chain can be induced to participate in coordination efforts. Given the increasing popularity of coordination initiatives between retailers and manufacturers, this research will provide important insights into the real benefits of information and coordination.