The Political Psychology of Crisis Negotiations: An Experimental Design

危机谈判的政治心理学：实验设计

• 批准号: 9905575
• 负责人: Jonathan Wilkenfeld
• 金额: $ 6.95万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-09-01 至 2001-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9905575&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Political; Psychology; Crisis; Negotiations; Experimental

Decisionmakers are overwhelmed frequently by the vast amounts of information which they must consider. They are forced often to make partially informed decisions which ignore critical issues because of the complexity of the situation being analyzed. This tendency becomes even more pronounced in international crisis situations, characterized by threat to basic values, finite (often short) time for response, and heightened probability of involvement in military hostilities. These elements all contribute to the possibility that individual decisionmakers are overwhelmed with detail and possibly unable to identify optimal outcomes, either individually or collectively. The vast literature on crisis decisionmaking shows that situations of intense crisis can create a reduced span of attention, cognitive rigidity, and a distorted perspective of time. These factors combine to make utility maximization difficult to attain. The research proposed here attempts to address these structural problems associated with decisionmaking in crisis by focusing on the negotiation process used to manage and resolve disputes which reach crisis proportions. The development of decision support systems for crisis negotiation is proposed as a means of reducing complexity and aiding in the evaluation of utilities associated with possible outcomes. With a decision support system in place, two specific aspects of the negotiation process are targeted for investigation: (1) the differential impact of general versus domain-specific cognitive complexity levels among crisis negotiators on negotiation processes and outcomes, and (2) the impact of various types of mediation on the outcome of negotiation. We propose that when negotiators are equipped with tools which allow them to make projections and evaluate the utilities associated with alternative proposals, coupled with their greater understanding of the cognitive capacities which adversaries bring to the negotiation table, and with the intervention of mediators, they increase their ability to resolve conflicts. Such parties should emerge from the experience having achieved mutual benefit, and therefore having laid the foundation for the long-term resolution of the underlying conflict. The experimental design which we propose is uniquely capable of facilitating a better understanding of how these elements fit together in an efficient and effective conflict-management strategy. This research program builds on our earlier work in the development of a strategic model of negotiation. Originally developed to address the problem of achieving cooperation among autonomous agents in distributed computational settings, this work led to the application of this model to crisis negotiation and bargaining situations through the creation of a decision support system for crisis negotiators. This decision support system has been implemented recently in a Hostage Crisis simulation setting to support experimental work on cognitive complexity and crisis outcomes. In addition, we have started conceptual work on a second crisis scenario and its associated decision support system, based on a fishing dispute, which allows us to look more closely at the role which different types of mediation can play in crisis negotiation.

决策者经常被必须考虑的大量信息压垮。 由于所分析情况的复杂性，他们常常被迫做出部分知情的决策，而忽略了关键问题。 这种趋势在国际危机局势中变得更加明显，其特点是基本价值观受到威胁、反应时间有限（通常很短）以及卷入军事敌对行动的可能性增加。 这些因素都可能导致个人决策者被细节淹没，可能无法单独或集体确定最佳结果。 有关危机决策的大量文献表明，严重危机的情况会导致注意力减少、认知僵化和时间观念扭曲。 这些因素结合在一起使得效用最大化难以实现。本文提出的研究试图通过关注用于管理和解决达到危机程度的争端的谈判过程来解决与危机决策相关的结构性问题。 建议开发危机谈判决策支持系统作为降低复杂性并帮助评估与可能结果相关的效用的一种手段。 有了决策支持系统，就可以针对谈判过程的两个具体方面进行调查：（1）危机谈判者一般认知复杂性水平与特定领域认知复杂性水平对谈判过程和结果的不同影响；（2）各种类型的调解对谈判结果的影响。 我们建议，当谈判者配备了能够做出预测和评估与替代提案相关的效用的工具，再加上他们对对手带到谈判桌上的认知能力有了更深入的了解，并且在调解员的干预下，他们解决冲突的能力就会提高。 这些各方应该从实现互惠互利的经验中脱颖而出，从而为长期解决根本冲突奠定基础。 我们提出的实验设计独特地能够促进更好地理解这些要素如何在高效且有效的冲突管理策略中结合在一起。该研究计划建立在我们早期开发谈判战略模型的工作基础上。 这项工作最初是为了解决分布式计算环境中自治代理之间实现合作的问题而开发的，通过为危机谈判者创建决策支持系统，将该模型应用于危机谈判和讨价还价情况。 该决策支持系统最近已在人质危机模拟环境中实施，以支持认知复杂性和危机结果的实验​​工作。 此外，我们还开始了基于渔业纠纷的第二种危机情景及其相关决策支持系统的概念工作，这使我们能够更仔细地研究不同类型的调解在危机谈判中可以发挥的作用。