Dynamical Diagnosis of NCAR CCM3 & CMS Interannual Variability

提出的探索性研究将对NCAR大气（CCM3）和气候系统模式（CSM）进行综合诊断。提出的动力学诊断的目的是增强CSM运行中观测到的周期性季节至年际变率模式的代表性，以便对温室气体增加的气候影响评估和从该模式获得的季节至年际预测更加可信。研究任务包括：(a)利用高分辨率ECMWF和NCEP再分析对绝热加热进行残差诊断以生成验证目标；(b)旋转主成分分析环流异常及其潜在强迫的联合变率，例如耦合模式中的海洋表面和地下温度、地面风、绝热加热和高层风；(c)使用高分辨率线性原始方程模型对观测和模拟的变率进行诊断建模。这项工作很重要，因为它应该为NCAR CSM项目提供一个强有力的诊断基础，该项目由一个大学小组负责对过去几年观测到的气候变率进行动态诊断。

The proposed exploratory research will undertake a comprehensive diagnosis of the NCAR atmospheric (CCM3) and climate system model (CSM). The objective of the proposed dynamical diagnosis is to enhance the representation of the observed modes of recurrent seasonal-to-interannual variability in the CSM runs so that climate-impact assessments for increased greenhouse gases and seasonal-to-interannual predictions obtained from this model are more credible. The research tasks include (a) residual diagnosis of diabatic heating from high-resolution ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses to generate validating targets, (b) rotated principal component analysis of combined variability of circulation anomalies and their potential forcing, e.g. ocean surface and subsurface temperature, surface winds, diabatic heating and upper-level winds in the coupled model, and (c) diagnostic modeling of observed and simulated variability using a high-resolution linear primitive equation model. The work is important because it should provide a strong diagnostics underpinning to the NCAR CSM project from a university based group engaged in dynamical diagnosis of observed climate variability for the past several years.