Dynamical Diagnosis of NCAR CCM3 & CMS Interannual Variability

拟议的探索性研究将对NCAR大气模式(CCM3)和气候系统模式(CSM)进行全面诊断。拟议的动态诊断的目的是加强在CSM运行中观察到的季节性至年际变化模式的代表性，以便从该模式获得的温室气体增加的气候影响评估和季节性至年际预测更可信。研究任务包括：(A)高分辨率ECMWF和NCEP再分析对非绝热加热的残差诊断，以生成验证目标；(B)旋转主成分分析环流异常及其潜在强迫的组合变率，例如耦合模式中的海洋表面和次表层温度、地面风、非绝热加热和高层风；以及(C)使用高分辨率线性原始方程模式对观测和模拟的变率进行诊断模拟。这项工作很重要，因为它应该为NCAR CSM项目提供强有力的诊断支持，该项目来自一个大学小组，该小组致力于过去几年观测到的气候变化的动态诊断。

The proposed exploratory research will undertake a comprehensive diagnosis of the NCAR atmospheric (CCM3) and climate system model (CSM). The objective of the proposed dynamical diagnosis is to enhance the representation of the observed modes of recurrent seasonal-to-interannual variability in the CSM runs so that climate-impact assessments for increased greenhouse gases and seasonal-to-interannual predictions obtained from this model are more credible. The research tasks include (a) residual diagnosis of diabatic heating from high-resolution ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses to generate validating targets, (b) rotated principal component analysis of combined variability of circulation anomalies and their potential forcing, e.g. ocean surface and subsurface temperature, surface winds, diabatic heating and upper-level winds in the coupled model, and (c) diagnostic modeling of observed and simulated variability using a high-resolution linear primitive equation model. The work is important because it should provide a strong diagnostics underpinning to the NCAR CSM project from a university based group engaged in dynamical diagnosis of observed climate variability for the past several years.