Structure and Mechanisms of Great Plains Hydroclimate Variability

该项目旨在研究美国大平原水文气候变化的来源。 将通过模拟研究调查各种现象（太平洋和大西洋海面温度的遥相关和北美陆地表面固有的记忆）对这种变化的影响。 这项工作首先是检查观测和分析产品（大气再分析和地表分析），以确定观测到的可能暗示原因的变异模式。 将应用一系列方法，从统计分析到简化（诊断原始方程）建模，最终是完整的气候模型模拟。 但是，主要的前提，源于最近的分析工作的PI，是大多数气候模型严重高估了强度的水文循环在大平原由于模型热力学和物理学的错误。 美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）社区气候系统模式（CCSM 3）将成为基于分析的模式强迫改进的测试平台。 最终目标是改善该地区的气候预测。 研究生将得到支持。

The project is designed to examine the source of hydroclimate variability over the U.S. Great Plains. The contributions of various phenomena ( teleconnection of Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the memory inherent in the land surface of North America) to this variability will be investigated through modeling studies. The work begins with an examination of observations and analysis products (atmospheric reanalyses and land surface analyses) to determine the observed modes of variability that may hint at causes. A hierarchy of methods will be applied, from statitical analyses to simplified (diagnostic primitive equation) modeling, and ultimately full climate model simulations. But the main premise, stemming from recent analysis work by the PIs, is that most climate models severely overestimate the strength of the hydrologic cycle over the Great Plains due to errors in model thermodynamics and physics. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) will be the testbed for model forcing refinements based on the analyses. The ultimate goal is to improve climate predictions for this region. A graduate student will be supported.