US-India Cooperative Research: Diagnosis of India's Weather Prediction Model's Forecast and Simulation Deficiencies

描述：该合同支持美印合作研究项目，题为“诊断印度天气预报模型的预报和模拟缺陷”。美国马里兰大学的PI Sumant Nigam将与位于新德里的印度国家中期天气预报中心的气象学家Shyam Singh、Sarat Kar和Gopal Iyengar合作。他们将测试印度数值天气预报模型的物理特性，方法是利用观测到的低层边界条件，对过去的气候进行多年的模拟。对整体平均气候模拟的分析，特别是与相应时期的观测相比较，将使人们能够确定模式的物理缺陷。模型物理特性的改进将对NCMRWF开发的气候模拟和中短期天气预报产生有益的影响。研究范围：研究目标是诊断印度唯一可操作的数值天气预报模式在NCMRWF产生的天气预报不足的原因。因此，这项研究的成功完成将改善印度的天气预报，并更好地了解观测到的周期性年际变化模式，特别是在印度夏季风期间。全球季风气象学家对这一课题有着极大的研究兴趣。除了促进NCMRWF参与国际大气模式比对项目（AMIP）的直接目标之外，这项研究将有助于对模型的性能进行基准测试，促进对NCMRWF模型集成的额外分析，并通过借鉴国际气象界的经验来加速模型的开发。该奖项由国际项目部和大气科学部联合支持。

0212616Nigam Description: This award supports a US-India cooperative research project entitled Diagnosis of India's Weather Prediction Model's Forecast and Simulation Deficiencies.US PI Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland will collaborate with Indian meteorologists, Shyam Singh, Sarat Kar, and Gopal Iyengar of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), in New Delhi. They will test the physics of India's numerical weather prediction model by producing multi-year simulations of the past climate, using observed lower-boundary conditions. Analysis of the ensemble-mean climate simulation, particularly comparison with the corresponding period observations, will allow one to determine the deficiencies of the model's physics. Improvement in the model's physics will have a beneficial impact on climate simulation and on short-to-medium range weather forecasts developed by the NCMRWF. Scope: The research goal is to diagnose the reasons for deficient weather forecasts produced at the NCMRWF by India's only operational numerical weather prediction model. Consequently, successful completion of the research will lead to improved weather forecasts in India and better understanding of the observed modes of recurrent seasonal-to-interannual variability, particularly during the Indian summer monsoon. There is immense research interest in this topic among monsoon meteorologists worldwide. Beyond the immediate objective of facilitating NCMRWF's participation in the international Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), this research will help benchmark the model's performance, foster additional analysis of the NCMRWF model integration's, and accelerate model development by drawing on the experience of the international meteorological community. This award is jointly supported by the Division of International Programs and the Division of Atmospheric Sciences.