RAPID: Representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and its Hydroclimate and Surface Temperature Links in Climate Simulations

RAPID：气候模拟中大西洋多年代变率及其水文气候和地表温度联系的表示

• 批准号: 1132259
• 负责人: Sumant Nigam
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1132259&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Representation; Atlantic; Multidecadal; Variability

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project will analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models with a focus on the representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability and its hydroclimate impacts. The AMO varies in phase on a timescale of 5-8 decades, and exerts considerable influence on North American hydroclimate, e.g. precipitation and droughts, surface air-temperature, and Atlantic hurricanes. Depending on its phase, the AMO impact can either offset or exacerbate the greenhouse gas forced warming signal over the continents in the Northern Hemisphere over a multidecadal period. Thus climate models undertaking decadal predictions and multidecadal projections cannot afford to misrepresent AMO variability. The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. This project seeks in particular to evaluate the representation of the AMO in coupled climate models. Thus the research will lead to improved understanding of the role of multidecadal natural variability and secular change in the evolving climate of the 20th and 21st centuries. By providing a baseline on latest versions of the climate models, this study will directly address issues of model deficiencies on model credibility.

这是16个快速反应（RAPID）项目之一，作为亲爱的同事信（NSF 11-006）的结果，鼓励对政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告（IPCC AR 5）准备的气候模型模拟进行诊断分析。在这些项目中进行的研究预计将导致更详细的模式相互比较，更好地理解强大的模式行为，更好地理解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。这个项目将分析耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）模式，重点是大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）变率及其水文气候影响的代表性。AMO在5- 80年的时间尺度上变化，并对北美水文气候产生相当大的影响，例如降水和干旱，地面气温和大西洋飓风。 根据其阶段的不同，AMO的影响可以抵消或加剧数十年来北方大陆温室气体强迫变暖信号。因此，气候模式进行十年预测和多年的预测不能歪曲AMO变率。 该项目更广泛的影响在于它支持气专委第五次评估报告，该报告旨在向全世界的决策者提供关于气候变化及其后果的信息。 该项目特别寻求评估AMO在耦合气候模式中的代表性。因此，这项研究将有助于更好地了解20世纪和21世纪气候演变中的多年自然变率和长期变化的作用。通过提供最新版本气候模型的基线，这项研究将直接解决模型可信度的模型缺陷问题。