SGER: Teleconnection Structure and Evolution in the Coupled Model Simulations

年际变率的周期型（包括遥相关）将从共同体气候系统模式（CCSM）、地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）模式和戈达德空间科学研究所（GISS）中提取，耦合模拟并与它们的观测对应物，特别是ENSO密切比较（El-Nino-Southern Oscillation）、PNA（Pacific/North American）、NAO/AO（North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Oscillation）和西太平洋（WP）型。陆地/海洋表面温度、海洋热含量、200和850 hPa位势、200 hPa散度、1000 hPa（地面）风以及相关的降水模式将是相互比较的重点。这些变量构成了监测模拟年际变率质量的最小集合;变量的选择将有助于仔细研究热带和热带外盆地的热带-外热带相互作用、海洋-大气相互作用、水文气候变率以及全球变暖信号本身。 变异性模式的成熟阶段结构的相互比较之后，模式演变的比较分析，这应该提供一个快速的，虽然不完整的，检查耦合模拟的基础变异机制的现实性。演变分析将以次月分辨率进行，最好以候时间尺度进行。一个更基本的大气环流描述是纬向对称环流，特别是纬向平均纬向风（U）。纬度-高度结构（U）中看似细微的差异可能是气候定常波和气候遥相关的结果，来自对流层中/穿过对流层的波传播调制。PI将通过使用大气模型动力学核心（诊断模型）的稳定线性化版本计算冬季地形环流响应来说明（U）气候学模型间变化的动力学意义。此外，由于（U）在中高纬度冬季的年际变化在最近的对流层-平流层相互作用的讨论中占有突出地位，特别是在对流层NAO和全球变暖信号的发展背景下，将进行对流层和平流层（U）变率的主成分分析。通过诊断建模，将再次说明（U）-变异性结构中模型间差异的重要性。 更广泛的影响：这项工作将为评估21世纪全球和区域气候和水资源模型预测建立基线信息。这是环境管理和环境决策的重要信息。

The recurrent patterns of interannual variability (teleconnections included) will be extracted from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, and the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS), coupled simulations and closely compared with their observational counterparts, particularly, ENSO (the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific/North American), NAO/AO (North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Oscillation), and the Western Pacific (WP) patterns manifest during Northern winters of the present-day climate. The land/ocean surface temperature, ocean heat-content, 200 and 850 hPa geopotential, 200 hPa divergence, 1000 hPa (surface) winds, and the associated precipitation patterns will be the focus of intercomparison. The variables constitute a minimal set for monitoring the quality of simulated interannual variability; the variable choice will facilitate scrutiny of tropical-extratropical interactions, ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and extratropical basins, hydroclimate variability, and of the global warming signal itself. Intercomparison of the variability patterns' mature-phase structure will be followed by comparative analysis of the pattern evolution; this should provide a quick, albeit incomplete, check on the realism of the underlying variability mechanisms in the coupled simulations. The evolution analysis will be conducted at submonthly resolution; preferably, at pentad time scales. An even more fundamental descriptor of the atmospheric general circulation is the zonally symmetric circulation, specially the zonal-mean zonal winds (U). Seemingly subtle differences in the (U) latitude-height structure can be consequential for climatological stationary waves and climate teleconnections, from modulation of wave propagation in/across the troposphere. The PIs will illustrate the dynamical significance of the inter-model variations of (U)-climatology by computing the orographic circulation response during winter, using a steady, linearized version of the atmospheric model's dynamical core (the diagnostic model). Additionally, since interannual variations of (U) in the middle-to-high latitude winters have figured prominently in recent discussions of troposphere-stratosphere interactions, specially, in context of the development of the NAO and global warming signals in the troposphere, a principal component analysis of (U) variability in the troposphere and stratosphere will be conducted. The significance of inter-model differences in the (U)-variability structures will again be illustrated through diagnostic modeling. Broader Impacts:This work will establish the baseline information for evaluating global and regional climate and water resource model projections for the 21st century. This is important information for environmental management and environmental policy decisions.