The Role of Memory Retrieval in Probability Judgment

记忆检索在概率判断中的作用

• 批准号: 9911301
• 负责人: J. Frank Yates
• 金额: $ 9.46万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-05-01 至 2001-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9911301&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Role; Memory; Retrieval; Probability; Judgment

9911301Yates, J. Frank The Role of Memory Retrieval in Probability Judgment People are often overconfident about their answers to general knowledgequestions (e.g. whether chimpanzees have longer or shorter gestationperiods than humans). And there is ample evidence that "real world"judgments, such as physicians' diagnoses of myocardial infarction, areoften less than ideal in a similar way. The proposed research is intendedto further develop and test a recently proposed model which asserts thatfeatures of how people bring to mind ("recruit") arguments pertinent to agiven judgment situation lead to deficient judgment. This research isfurther anticipated to illuminate procedures that yield improvedjudgments. The "argument recruitment model" proposes that people rarelybase their judgments on more than a few facts or arguments. And when theydo bring to mind multiple arguments from memory, the ones retrieved laterin the process tend only to support those presented earlier. The modelpredicts that judgment should be improved if the amounts and "balance" ofretrieval of facts from memory are changed. Thus, the primarymanipulation to be explored in this research is that of requesting studyparticipants to recall all of the relevant facts (e.g., similar previouscases) they can prior to rendering their judgments. Support for the modelwill be indicated to the extent that such demands tend to reduce theoverconfidence evident in participants' judgments.

9911301Yates，J. Frank记忆提取在概率判断中的作用人们经常对他们对常识问题的答案过于自信（例如，黑猩猩的妊娠期比人类长还是短）。 有充分的证据表明，“真实的世界“的判断，如医生对心肌梗塞的诊断，往往也不太理想。 这项研究旨在进一步发展和测试最近提出的一个模型，该模型声称人们如何想到（“招募”）与给定判断情况相关的论点的特征会导致判断缺陷。 这项研究有望进一步阐明产生改进判断的程序。 “论据招募模型”认为人们很少会根据几个事实或论据来做出判断。 当他们确实从记忆中想到多个论点时，在这个过程中后来检索到的论点往往只支持那些先前提出的论点。 该模型预测，如果从记忆中提取事实的数量和“平衡”发生变化，判断力应该得到改善。 因此，在这项研究中要探索的主要操纵是要求研究参与者回忆所有相关事实（例如，在他们做出判断之前，他们可以先做出类似的判断。 对模型的支持将表明这种要求往往会减少参与者判断中明显的过度自信。