Cross-National Differences in Probability Judgment

在美国等西方国家和许多亚洲国家，个人做出的概率判断存在巨大、可靠的差异。大多数差异与校准有关。(例如，如果被分配了40%的概率判断的事件中约有40%实际发生，则存在良好的校准。)然而，歧视方面的差异也有记录在案。(判别力是判断目标事件何时会发生、何时不会发生的能力。)对观察到的差异的几种可能的解释将在美国和几个亚洲地点的受试者中进行测试。主要的研究假设是，这些差异取决于根植于不同文化传统的认知加工习惯，包括与社会互动有关的传统。另一个命题是，这种差异是前人对判断任务抽样的产物。根据第三种解释，这些区别是针对特定的判断主题和学生主题的。最后的解释是，这些差异反映了判断质量各个方面的相对重要性在不同国家之间的差异。这项研究承诺洞察普遍的判断机制以及特定文化特有的判断机制。它还应就跨国交流和协作中的问题以及改进决策技术及其可转移性提供指导。

There are large, reliable differences in probability judgments made by individuals in Western countries like the United States and those in many Asian countries. Most differences pertain to calibration. (Good calibration exists, for example, if about 40% of the events that are assigned probability judgments of 40% actually happen.) However, differences in discrimination have been documented, too. (Discrimination is the ability of judgments to sharply distinguish instances when a target event will occur from those when it will not.) Several potential explanations of the observed differences will be tested with subjects in the United States and several Asian locations. The major research hypothesis is that the variations rest on cognitive processing habits rooted in different cultural traditions, including ones pertaining to social interactions. Another proposition is that the differences are an artifact of previous researchers' sampling of judgment tasks. According to a third explanation, the distinctions are specific to particular judgment topics and to student subjects. A final explanation says that the differences reflect cross-national variations in the relative importance of various aspects of judgment quality. This research promises insights into universal judgment mechanisms as well as ones peculiar to given cultures. It should also provide guidance about problems in cross-national communication and collaboration and for improving decision technologies and their transferability.