Cross-National Differences in Probability Judgment

在美国等西方国家和许多亚洲国家，人们对概率的判断存在很大的可靠差异。大多数差异与校准有关。（例如，如果指定的概率判断为40%的事件中约有40%实际发生，则存在良好的校准。）然而，歧视方面的差异也有记录。（辨别力是一种判断能力，能够敏锐地区分目标事件何时会发生与何时不会发生。）对观察到的差异的几种可能的解释将在美国和一些亚洲地区的实验中进行测试。一种假设是，这种影响仅限于法官直接报告的评估，而不是他们的意见。另一种说法是，这种差异仅限于少数事件。第三种解释是，它们反映了判断质量各方面相对重要性的社会差异。主要兴趣假设认为，影响取决于根植于不同教育实践的认知处理习惯。提出的研究有望对普遍的判断机制以及特定文化特有的机制提供见解。它们应该对跨国交流与合作中的问题以及决策技术的可转移性提供指导。

There are large reliable differences in probability judgments made by individuals in Western countries like the United States and those in numerous Asian countries. Most differences pertain to calibration. (Good calibration exists, for example, if about 40% of the events that are assigned probability judgements of 40% actually happen.) However, differences in discrimination have been documented too. (Discrimination is the ability of judgements to sharply distinguish instances when a target event will occur from those when it will not.) Several potential explanations of the observed differences are to be tested in experiments with subject groups in the United States and a number of Asian locations. One hypothesis is that the effects are limited to judges' directly reported assessments, which are not their opinions. Another claims that the differences are restricted to a narrow class of events. A third explanation says that they reflect societal differences in the relative importance of various aspects of judgment quality. The hypothesis of primary interest asserts that the effects rest on cognitive processing habits rooted in different educational practices. The proposed studies promise insights about universal judgment mechanisms as well as mechanisms peculiar to given cultures. They should provide guidance about problems in cross- national communication and cooperation and the transferability of decision technologies.