Quantifying the Uncertainty in Times of Appearance and Disappearance in the Fossil Record: A Bayesian Approach

量化化石记录中出现和消失时间的不确定性：贝叶斯方法

• 批准号: 0000385
• 负责人: Charles Marshall
• 金额: $ 21.89万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-01-01 至 2004-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0000385&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Quantifying; Uncertainty; Times; Appearance; Disappearance

0000385MarshallThe most powerful methods for quantifying the incompleteness of the fossil record in local sections are based on Strauss and Sadler's (1989) confidence interval approach. This family of methods (including the distribution-free and generalized methods of Marshall [1994, 1997]) assume that the section has been continuously sampled, and that fossils may be found essentially anywhere in the section. However, in most sections these assumptions are violated, either because only parts of the section have been (e.g., for core data), or can be, sampled, or because fossils are restricted to specific bedding planes, or narrow stratigraphic intervals. As an alternative, Weiss and Marshall (1999) developed a Bayesian approach for estimating the uncertainty in stratigraphic end points of taxa in local sections that have been sampled discretely. However, the method is based on some overly simple assumptions: that collecting intensity is equal at all sampled horizons; that species remain at the same relative abundance at all times; and, that the beds sampled have no vertical thickness. Further, our approach (like all others) does not make use of abundance data in the fossil record.Here we propose to develop the method presented in Weiss and Marshall (1999) into a series of more sophisticated methods that can accommodate the inhomogeneities typically seen in the fossil record, as well as take advantage of abundance data when it is recorded. Our ultimate goal is to provide a statistical "tool-kit" that can be broadly applied to a wide range of problems.

0000385马歇尔量化局部剖面化石记录不完整性的最有效方法是基于Strauss和Sadler（1989）的置信区间方法。 这类方法（包括马歇尔[1994，1997]的无分布和广义方法）假设剖面是连续取样的，化石可能在剖面的任何地方找到。然而，在大多数章节中，这些假设都被违反了，要么是因为只有部分章节（例如，对于岩心数据），或者可以取样，或者因为化石局限于特定的层面，或者狭窄的地层间隔。 作为替代方案，韦斯和马歇尔（1999年）开发了一种贝叶斯方法，用于估计离散采样的局部剖面中分类群的地层终点的不确定性。 然而，该方法是基于一些过于简单的假设：即采集强度是平等的，在所有采样层位，物种保持在同一相对丰度在任何时候，和，床采样没有垂直厚度。 此外，我们的方法（像所有其他方法一样）没有利用化石记录中的丰度数据，在这里，我们建议将韦斯和马歇尔（1999）提出的方法发展成一系列更复杂的方法，这些方法可以适应化石记录中常见的不均匀性，并在记录时利用丰度数据。 我们的最终目标是提供一个可广泛应用于各种问题的统计“工具包”。