Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion

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Abstract for proposal EAR0106823 (PH #5x)Title: Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion PI: Greg Beroza Stanford UniversityIn this study we will develop an earthquake source model that simultaneously satisfies: (1) a previously derived stochastic model of the distribution and variability of slip on the fault consistent with observations of past earthquakes and (2) a simple physical model of the earthquake source that characterizes dynamic rupture by the distribution of stress drop and fracture energy. The result will be a model for earthquakes that is consistent with both observations of the earthquake source and rupture dynamics. This will provide a complete description of the earthquake source that includes variability in the slip distribution, rupture velocity, rise time, and shape of the slip velocity function in a self-consistent way. We will use this stochastic-dynamic source model to predict the level and variability of strong ground motion for scenario earthquakes. The use of a stochastic source description and output that consists of a suite of possible ground motion time histories, will merge naturally with the probabilistic approach that is usually adopted for seismic hazard analysis.