Influence of Ocean Surface Conditions on Regional Climate of the Northern North Atlantic.

拟议的研究将对北大西洋海面温度异常对从巴芬岛延伸到挪威海的区域的气候和大气环流变化的影响进行模拟和观测调查。对1982年10月至1984年9月发生在格陵兰以西和1967年10月至1969年9月发生在格陵兰以东的已知高持续性负SSTA进行中尺度模式模拟。这些事件中的每一次都可能与十年一遇的海洋SSTA有关，它们将使用一种模拟方法来评估海洋对区域温度、降水和大气环流变异性的影响，包括风暴路径变化。模式的结果将与SSTA敏感性实验进行比较，在这些实验中，海洋在同一时期具有正的暖异常。第三个模式敏感性研究将使用为期一个月的冬季和夏季模拟，以调查SSTA对穿越挪威海进入北极的风暴移动的作用，以及副极地低压位于冰岛远东的同时趋势。随之而来的观测分析将侧重于评估北大西洋暖海温池的气候影响，特别是从1920-1940年，以及1970年之前的其他冷事件。通过研究格陵兰岛以东和拉布拉多附近地区异常的影响，研究希望确定之前在戴维斯海峡发现的极其持久的异常是独特的还是常见的。将使用旋转主成分分析来确定北大西洋SSTA和大西洋风暴路径之间所有季节的联系。风暴路径数据将用于进一步评估北大西洋和北极振荡之间的联系，以及评估向东移动的风暴路径如何影响海冰运输。计划的最终结果是对SST对大西洋北极气候和环流变异性的影响进行全面评估，并对影响大西洋和北极盆地的主要大西洋风暴路径进行评估。这项研究还将使人们能够估计北大西洋北部Anoma-Lies气旋活动的可预测性。这些结果将有助于我们在目前影响北大西洋和北极地区的大变化的背景下，理解高纬度气候和海-气相互作用。

The proposed research will carry out a modeling and observationally-based investigation of the impact of northern Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the climate and atmo-spheric circulation variability over a region extending from Baffin Island to the Norwegian Sea. Mesoscale model simulations are to be performed of known, high persistent, negative SSTAs that occurred from October 1982 to September 1984 to the west of Greenland and from October 1967 to September 1969 east of Greenland. Each of these events, which are potentially associated with decadal-period ocean SSTAs, will use a modeling approach to evaluate the oceanic impact on regional temperatures, precipitation and atmospheric circulation variability including storm track shifts. The model results will be compared with SSTA sensitivity experiments in which the ocean has a positive warm anomaly during the same periods. A third model sensitivity study will employ month-long simulations for winter and summer to investigate the roles of SSTAs on the movement of storms across the Norwegian Sea and into the Arctic, and the simultaneous tendency for the subpolar low to lie far east of Iceland. Accompanying observational analyses will focus on evaluating the climatic impacts of a decadally varying warm SST pool in the northern Atlantic, especially from 1920-1940, as well as other cold events prior to 1970. By examining the effects of the anomalies in regions east of Greenland and near Labrador, the research hopes to determine whether the previously identified extremely persistent anomalies in Davis Strait are unique or common. Rotated principal component analyses will be used in an effort to determine links dur-ing all seasons between northern Atlantic SSTAs and Atlantic storm tracks. Storm track data will be used to further evaluate links between the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations, as well as to assess how eastward storm track shifts impact sea ice transport. The end result is planned to be a comprehensive evaluation of the SST impact on Atlantic Arctic climate and circulation variability and an assessment of the dominant Atlantic storm tracks that impact the Atlantic and Arctic basins. The research will also allow an estimate of the predictability of cyclone activity anoma-lies in the northern North Atlantic. These results will contribute to our understanding of high lati-tude climate and ocean-atmosphere interactions within the context of the large changes that are at present impacting the northern Atlantic and Arctic regions.