New Methods In Storm Track Dynamics Theory

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Atmospheric flows such as mid-latitude jets are, in general, time-dependent so that a comprehensive stability theory for these systems must address the influence of temporal variation in the background flow on the growth and structure of perturbations. Another important application of time-dependent instability theory is in relation to the growth of initial errors in tangent linear models. In this project, the PI plans to pursue further the non-modal stability theory he and his group developed for time-varying flows to study deterministic stability problems related to the origin and maintenance of upper level short waves. In addition, the PI will investigate the statistical mean structure and dynamics of synoptic scale variance through stochastic forcing. The project has the potential of obtaining new insight into linear instability with time-varying flows that may provide new understanding for mid-latitude synoptic weather phenomena such as storm tracks.