Predictability and Maintenance of Variance in Atmospheric Flows

最近的理论和观测研究的主要 研究者和其他人支持气旋生成的观点， 代表有利配置的快速瞬时增长，或 “最佳”，大气流动的扰动。 结果提示 该理论模型的要素可以具有更广泛的应用， 即天气尺度波的起源和维持 它们在简单流中的变化。 这也可以扩展到 时空流动不均匀性在组织中的作用 变化成风暴轨迹。 法雷尔博士会用随机变量 正压和准正压的动力方程， 为这次调查提供了地转模式。 此外，法雷尔博士将继续调查 使用最佳大气流量的可预测性的限制 微扰技术 他试图澄清 背景流在确定扰动增长率（和 可预测性降低）。 这一研究领域具有重要意义。 对天气预报的影响和改进的潜力。

Recent theoretical and observational studies by the principal investigator and others support the view that cyclogenesis represents the rapid transient growth of favorably configured, or "optimal", perturbations of atmospheric flow. Results suggest that elements of this theoretical model may have wider application, namely, to the origin of synoptic scale waves and the maintenance of their variance in simple flows. This also could extend to the role of spatial and temporal flow inhomogeneity in organizing variance into storm tracks. Dr. Farrell will employ the stochastic dynamic equations associated with the barotropic and quasi- geostrophic models for this investigation. In addition, Dr. Farrell will continue his investigations into the limits of predictability of atmospheric flows using optimal perturbation techniques. He seeks to clarify the role of the background flow in determining the rate of perturbation growth (and decreased predictability). This area of research has important implications for, and potential to improve, weather forecasting.