Initial Value Problem Theory of Cyclogenesis and the Predictability of Flows

本项目的总体目标是更好地了解 天气尺度天气系统的发展， 最终改善天气预报。 校长 研究人员以前的工作集中在如何结构 流量或“初始值”对随后的 扰动的发展。 他将把这项研究 沿着两条线。 第一个目标是继续他的 调查造成这一现象的物理机制， 另一个是探索的可预测性 大规模大气流动。 观测证据表明，变形，以及 作为切变，在背景大气流动中， 对某些类型的气旋生成的作用。 校长 研究人员已经表明， 气旋能量发展的背景流。 他 将扩展这项工作，看看汇流的影响， 对流动中的扰动的分流。 虽然这个问题已经得到了广泛的研究， 大气可预报性的理论估计 仍然有很大的差异， 预测实验 原因似乎是可变性 流态的可预测性，也就是说， 各种类型的流动本身就比其他类型的流动更容易预测。 首席研究员将探索错误的增长， 数值模型，并试图区分这些流动 哪些是可预测的，哪些是不可预测的， 流动特性

The overall goal of this project is to better understand the development of synoptic scale weather systems, which may ultimately lead to improved weather forecasts. The principal investigator's previous work has focused how the structure of the flow, or "initial value", contributes to subsequent development of perturbations. He will extend this research along two lines. The first thrust is to continue his investigations into the physical mechanism(s) responsible for cyclogenesis; the other is to explore the predictability of large scale atmospheric flows. Observational evidence suggests that deformation, as well as shear, in the background atmospheric flow plays an important role for certain types of cyclogenesis. The principal investigator already has shown the effect of shear in the background flow on the energetic development of cyclones. He will extend this work to look at the effect of confluence and difluence on perturbations in the flow. While the subject has been studied extensively, theoretical estimates of the predictability of the atmosphere still vary widely as do the results from numerical weather prediction experiments. The reason appears to be variability in the predictability of the flow regimes, that is, certain types of flows are inherently more predictable than others. The principal investigator will explore the growth of error in numerical models and attempt to distinguish between those flows which are predictable and those which are not as a function of flow characteristics.