New Methods in Storm Track Dynamics Theory

许多区域天气变化的发生是由于急流及其相关风暴路径的位移。急流的轴线和受其驱动的气旋从一个地理区域移动到另一个地理区域，观察到一些急流在产生气旋时比其他急流更活跃。该项目将提高对大气风暴路径位移和活动的认识。它还将利用已开发的分析风暴路径动力学的方法，通过提高对预报和数据同化误差增长的理解来改进天气预报。PI将开发新的方法来分析射流结构和涡流场之间的相互作用，包括在随机射流湍流建模方面的进展和对统计平衡稳定性理论的新贡献。

Much of the regional variability of weather occurs because of the displacement of the jet stream and its associated storm tracks. The axis of the jet stream and the cyclones steered by it move from one geographical area to another and some jets are observed to be more active in producing cyclones than others. This project will improve the understanding of the displacement and activity of atmospheric storm tracks. It will also exploit the methods that have been developed for analyzing storm track dynamics to improve weather forecasts through advancing understanding of forecast and data assimilation error growth. The PI will develop new methods for analyzing the interaction between the jet structure and the eddy fields including advances in stochastic jet turbulence modeling and novel contributions to the stability theory of statistical equilibria.