Investigation of Sea Level Rise in the Arctic Ocean

{136432} proshutinsky由于全球变暖导致的北极海平面上升很重要，因为海平面变化将对海岸线侵蚀、沉积物运输、航行条件以及石油和天然气作业产生影响。这项研究将试图描述和模拟目前北冰洋海平面上升的速度。海平面是气候变化的自然综合指标，反映了陆地、海洋、大气和冰冻圈几乎所有动力和热力学过程的变化。然而，使用海平面上升的估计值作为气候变化的一项指标会带来困难，因为海平面变化是许多因素的净结果，其中一些因素可以相互抵消。这项工作将确定导致北冰洋海平面变化的每个因素的作用。基于对俄罗斯档案中现有但以前无法获得的海平面高度时间序列的分析，以及大气、冰冻圈、陆地和海洋数据集以及数值模拟和数据重建的结果，我们将(1)确定海平面变率与大气、水文、冰冻圈和海洋过程之间的联系，(2)量化海平面响应方面相关过程的区域和时间变率。(3)确定全球变暖条件下影响海平面变化的各因子的相对重要性。观测到的海平面变率综合了这些因素的复杂贡献，将作为海洋对气候变化反应的主要指标。基于这一分析，将在海平面变化的概念模型中评估水文、大气环流、水文条件和北冰洋海冰状况之间联系的影响。这个项目是由来自美国、英国和挪威的科学家组成的一个国际研究小组共同努力的。本项目的研究建议和结果将对美国国家科学基金会和欧洲的一些项目以及区域气候影响评估产生直接影响。

0136432ProshutinskyThe sea level rise in the Arctic anticipated to result from global warming is important because of the influence that sea level changes will exert on shoreline erosion, sediment transport, navigation conditions, and oil and gas operations. This research will attempt to describe and model the current rate of sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean.Sea level is a natural integrating indicator of climate change, reflecting changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric processes. However, using estimates of eustatic sea level rise as an indicator of climate change incurs the difficulty that sea level change is the net result of many components, some of which can offset one another. This effort will identify the role of each of the factors that contribute to Arctic Ocean sea level change.Based on analysis of existing, but previously unavailable, time series of sea level heights from Russian archives, along with atmospheric, cryospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic data sets and results of numerical modeling and data reconstruction, we will (1) identify links among sea level variability and atmospheric, hydrologic, cryospheric and oceanic processes, (2) quantify the regional and temporal variability of relevant processes in terms of sea level response, and (3) determine the relative importance of each factor influencing sea level change under global warming conditions. The observed sea level variability, which acts to integrate the complex contributions of these factors, will serve as the primary indicator of the ocean's response to climate change. Based on this analysis, the impact of linkages between hydrography, atmospheric circulation, hydrologic conditions, and the sea ice regime over the Arctic Ocean will be assessed in a conceptual model of sea level change.This project is an international effort with a research team of scientists from the USA, United Kingdom, and Norway. The proposed research and results of this project will have direct influence on several US National Science Foundation and European programs and regional climatic impact assessments.