Investigation of Sea Level Rise in the Arctic Ocean

0136432 Proshutinsky全球变暖导致的北极海平面上升是非常重要的，因为海平面的变化将对海岸线侵蚀、沉积物输送、航行条件以及石油和天然气作业产生影响。这项研究将试图描述和模拟目前北冰洋海平面上升的速度，海平面是气候变化的一个自然综合指标，反映了几乎所有的动力学和热力学陆地，海洋，大气和冰冻圈过程的变化。然而，使用海平面上升的估计值作为气候变化的指标会带来困难，因为海平面变化是许多组成部分的净结果，其中一些可以相互抵消。这项工作将确定每一个因素对北冰洋海平面变化的作用。基于对俄罗斯档案中现有但以前无法获得的海平面高度时间序列的分析，沿着大气、冰冻圈、陆地和海洋数据集以及数值模拟和数据重建的结果，我们将（1）确定海平面变化与大气、水文、（2）从海平面响应的角度量化相关过程的区域和时间变化;（3）确定全球变暖条件下影响海平面变化的每个因素的相对重要性。观测到的海平面变化综合了这些因素的复杂作用，将成为海洋对气候变化反应的主要指标。在此分析的基础上，水文地理学，大气环流，水文条件和北冰洋海冰制度之间的联系的影响将在海平面变化的概念模型进行评估。该项目是一个国际性的努力与来自美国，英国和挪威的科学家的研究小组。该项目的研究和成果将对美国国家科学基金会和欧洲的一些项目以及区域气候影响评估产生直接影响。

0136432ProshutinskyThe sea level rise in the Arctic anticipated to result from global warming is important because of the influence that sea level changes will exert on shoreline erosion, sediment transport, navigation conditions, and oil and gas operations. This research will attempt to describe and model the current rate of sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean.Sea level is a natural integrating indicator of climate change, reflecting changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric processes. However, using estimates of eustatic sea level rise as an indicator of climate change incurs the difficulty that sea level change is the net result of many components, some of which can offset one another. This effort will identify the role of each of the factors that contribute to Arctic Ocean sea level change.Based on analysis of existing, but previously unavailable, time series of sea level heights from Russian archives, along with atmospheric, cryospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic data sets and results of numerical modeling and data reconstruction, we will (1) identify links among sea level variability and atmospheric, hydrologic, cryospheric and oceanic processes, (2) quantify the regional and temporal variability of relevant processes in terms of sea level response, and (3) determine the relative importance of each factor influencing sea level change under global warming conditions. The observed sea level variability, which acts to integrate the complex contributions of these factors, will serve as the primary indicator of the ocean's response to climate change. Based on this analysis, the impact of linkages between hydrography, atmospheric circulation, hydrologic conditions, and the sea ice regime over the Arctic Ocean will be assessed in a conceptual model of sea level change.This project is an international effort with a research team of scientists from the USA, United Kingdom, and Norway. The proposed research and results of this project will have direct influence on several US National Science Foundation and European programs and regional climatic impact assessments.