Investigation of Sea Level Rise in the Arctic Ocean

预计全球变暖将导致北极海平面上升非常重要，因为海平面变化将对海岸线侵蚀、沉积物输送、航行条件以及石油和天然气作业产生影响。这项研究将试图描述和模拟北冰洋目前的海平面上升速度。海平面是气候变化的自然综合指标，反映了几乎所有陆地、海洋、大气和冰冻圈动态和热力学过程的变化。然而，使用海平面上升的估计值作为气候变化的指标会遇到困难，因为海平面变化是许多因素的净结果，其中一些因素可以相互抵消。这项工作将确定导致北冰洋海平面变化的每个因素的作用。基于对俄罗斯档案中现有的但以前无法获得的海平面高度时间序列的分析，以及大气、冰冻圈、陆地和海洋数据集以及数值模拟和数据重建的结果，我们将(1)确定海平面变化与大气、水文、冰冻圈和海洋过程之间的联系，(2)根据海平面响应量化相关过程的区域和时间变化，(3)确定在全球变暖条件下影响海平面变化的每个因素的相对重要性。观测到的海平面变化综合了这些因素的复杂影响，将成为海洋应对气候变化的主要指标。基于这一分析，将在海平面变化的概念模型中评估北冰洋水文地理学、大气环流、水文条件和海冰状况之间的联系的影响。该项目是一个由来自美国、英国和挪威的科学家组成的研究小组的国际努力。该项目的拟议研究和成果将对美国国家科学基金会和欧洲的几个项目以及区域气候影响评估产生直接影响。

0136432ProshutinskyThe sea level rise in the Arctic anticipated to result from global warming is important because of the influence that sea level changes will exert on shoreline erosion, sediment transport, navigation conditions, and oil and gas operations. This research will attempt to describe and model the current rate of sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean.Sea level is a natural integrating indicator of climate change, reflecting changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric processes. However, using estimates of eustatic sea level rise as an indicator of climate change incurs the difficulty that sea level change is the net result of many components, some of which can offset one another. This effort will identify the role of each of the factors that contribute to Arctic Ocean sea level change.Based on analysis of existing, but previously unavailable, time series of sea level heights from Russian archives, along with atmospheric, cryospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic data sets and results of numerical modeling and data reconstruction, we will (1) identify links among sea level variability and atmospheric, hydrologic, cryospheric and oceanic processes, (2) quantify the regional and temporal variability of relevant processes in terms of sea level response, and (3) determine the relative importance of each factor influencing sea level change under global warming conditions. The observed sea level variability, which acts to integrate the complex contributions of these factors, will serve as the primary indicator of the ocean's response to climate change. Based on this analysis, the impact of linkages between hydrography, atmospheric circulation, hydrologic conditions, and the sea ice regime over the Arctic Ocean will be assessed in a conceptual model of sea level change.This project is an international effort with a research team of scientists from the USA, United Kingdom, and Norway. The proposed research and results of this project will have direct influence on several US National Science Foundation and European programs and regional climatic impact assessments.