Collaborative Research: Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS)

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This is a pilot effort to engage in discussions to change arctic ocean model inter comparison activities (Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, AOMIP) into a new project called the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) that will focus on the organization of arctic ocean science and enhancing collaboration and coordination among different contributing disciplines. Observationalists, theoreticians, and modelers will be represented at all levels of activities starting from generating hypotheses, to planning and finalizing analyses. This pilot effort will explore how the work will be managed through annual project meetings, virtual workshops, and scientist-to-scientists communications and collaborations. The long term FAMOS science goals are to: (i) Continue validation and improvement of regional Arctic Ocean models in a coordinated fashion, (ii) Investigate ways to improve reanalysis products with a focus on data assimilation and the design of comprehensive observing systems, (iii) Continue investigation of variability of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice at seasonal to decadal time scales focusing on the processes, and identify mechanisms responsible for the observed changes, and (vi) Analyze IPCC model results validating them against observations in the Arctic and results from the regional Arctic models. The project will sponsor a workshop; encourage and coordinate formation of intercomparison projects focused on solving current issues of interest to the observational and modeling communities; prepare papers and give talks about FAMOS and lead the ongoing intercomparison projects from initial brainstorming to final publication; provide limited funding for travel and for publication of results. In the future it is thought that FAMOS will help improve our understanding of oceanic and sea-ice processes. The most significant FAMOS contributions will likely be: development of regional arctic models, identification of model errors and causes of these errors and model discrepancies, recommendations for improvements of existing regional coupled ice-ocean models and GCMs by implementing new physics and parameterizations for arctic processes. Within these activities, an important contribution will be an assessment of the state and variability of Arctic sea ice and ocean parameters from 1870-present. The coordinated community approach to the investigation of Arctic Ocean variability is the only way to assess the degree of uncertainty in results and conclusions made by different modelers, scientific groups, or institutions. Therefore, FAMOS will contribute to this assessment and establish a set of benchmarks characterizing the state-of-the-art of Arctic Ocean modeling, and the newest analysis of the Arctic Ocean climate and its variability. One of the highest impacts of the FAMOS activity is educational (including the AOMIP/FAMOS school) because it promotes the growth of young scientists participating in the project, provides guidelines for critical analysis of the existing models, and fruitful improvements and developments of the arctic models by a new generation of arctic modelers.