Of Moths and Mice: The Influence of Dispersal Distance and Local Predation Risk on Persistence of a Sparse Prey

蛾和小鼠：扩散距离和局部捕食风险对稀疏猎物持久性的影响。放大图片作者：Richard S.作者声明：Eric M.捕食者可能会消灭他们的猎物。 了解猎物种群如何在捕食面前坚持下去，可以帮助我们维持濒危物种的种群和控制害虫种群。 例如，舞毒蛾是一种引入的害虫，在北美东部的硬木森林中造成了很大的破坏。 白足鼠在这些森林中大量存在，它们是舞毒蛾的贪婪捕食者，能够在当地将蛾类灭绝。 既然飞蛾的灭绝并没有在更大的区域发生，那么飞蛾是如何在老鼠的强烈捕食面前坚持下去的呢？两个因素的综合影响是重要的：（1）舞毒蛾蛹被攻击的可能性因地而异，（2）舞毒蛾毛虫在其一生中不会分散得很远。 计算机模拟表明，结合这两个因素可以大大增加蛾种群持续存在的机会。 在该项目期间，将在纽约州的橡树林收集数据，以便开发、改进和测试这些模拟模型。 将测量舞毒蛾毛虫的扩散距离和舞毒蛾蛹在几个地点的捕食风险。 这些测量结果将被纳入计算机模拟，以预测如何改变捕食风险的空间格局会影响舞毒蛾种群。 最后，预测将在有不同数量的分散蛾毛虫的地区进行测试，方法是设置喂食站来操纵老鼠觅食的模式。这一程序将改变舞毒蛾的捕食风险，并应以可预测的方式改变当地蛾种群持续存在的可能性。

Of Moths and Mice: The Influence of Dispersal Distance and LocalPredation Risk on Persistence of a Sparse PreyClive G. Jones, Brett J. Goodwin, Richard S. Ostfeld and Eric M. Schauber.Predators can potentially exterminate populations of their prey. Understanding how prey populations persist in the face of predation can help us sustain populations of endangered species and control pest populations. For example, gypsy moths are introduced insect pests that cause much damage in hardwood forests of eastern North America. White-footed mice, which are abundant in these forests, are voracious predators on gypsy moth pupae and are capable of driving moths locally to extinction. Since moth extinction has not actually happened over larger areas, how do moths persist in the face of intense predation by mice? The combined effects of two factors are important: (1) the likelihood of a gypsy moth pupa being attacked varies from place to place and (2) gypsy moth caterpillars do not disperse very far during their lifetimes. Computer simulations indicate that combining these two factors can substantially increase the chances that moth populations will persist. During this project, data will be collected in oak forests in New York State that will allow the development, refinement and testing of these simulation models. The dispersal distances of gypsy moth caterpillars and the predation risk for gypsy moth pupae at several sites will be measured. These measurements will be incorporated into the computer simulation to predict how changing the spatial pattern of predation risk would affect gypsy moth populations. Finally, predictions will be tested in areas where there are different numbers of dispersing moth caterpillars by putting out feeding stations to manipulate the patterns of mouse foraging. This procedure will alter the risk of predation for gypsy moth pupae and should change the likelihood of local moth population persistence in a predictable way.