C-RUI: Spatial Modeling of a Biological Invasion: the Spread of Sudden Oak Death and the Importance of Host Genetics, Environmental Forcings, and Community Structyre

C-RUI：生物入侵的空间建模：橡树突然死亡的传播以及宿主遗传学、环境强迫和群落结构的重要性

• 批准号: 0217064
• 负责人: Ross Meentemeyer
• 金额: $ 81.07万
• 依托单位: Sonoma State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-01 至 2006-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0217064&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RUI; Spatial; Modeling; Biological; Invasion

Biological invasions represent a major component of global environmental change.Invasions may lead to reduced biodiversity and often result in permanent alterations toecosystems.Invasive non-native plant pathogens have dramatically affected ecosystems in manyparts of the world.The mechanisms underlying dispersal of these pathogens and their ecologicalconsequences are critical issues for conservation and ecosystem management.Spatial pattern isa fundamental property of disease dynamics because it reflects the genetic heterogeneity andenvironmental forces acting on pathogen dispersal and life history.A multidisciplinary approachis required to solve the challenges of 1)incorporating fine-scale processes of pathogen dispersalinto landscape-level models and 2)integrating spatial variation in environmental factors and hostpopulation genetics with disease incidence.In this proposal,we describe research to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics ofPhytophthora ramorum,an emerging,and probably exotic,pathogen that causes a lethal diseaseof oaks and tanoaks in coastal California.This disease,known as Sudden Oak Death (SOD),hasreached epidemic levels in several counties.The proposal integrates spatial data on hostgenetics,community structure,and environmental variation with investigations of mechanismsunderlying spread of P.ramorum to model changes in the distribution of this plant disease acrossthe landscape.Model predictions will identify critical factors that influence the distribution ofSOD and provide forecasts of habitat loss in oak woodlands as a consequence of SOD.Thisproposal describes a multidisciplinary program to model the spread of a destructive plant diseaseand to predict its ecological consequences.Our objectives are not developed as discreteactivities for individual researchers,but rather a collaborative effort among researchers to attacka single problem.We aim to accomplish the following:1.Develop a statistically based model that predicts spatial patterns of SOD risk on thelandscape,based on relationships among several critical environmental factors.These factorsinclude proximity to previously infected locations,genetic background of host species,plantcommunity structure,landscape structure,abiotic conditions,and anthropogenic activities.2.Develop a mechanistic model that predicts spatial patterns of pathogen activity and hostsusceptibility based on empirical studies of pathogen dispersal between hosts on fine spatialscales and on environmental conditions conducive to pathogen reproduction and dispersal.3.Develop a model of SOD spread that integrates the most predictive components of thestatistical and mechanistic models.4.Foster participation of undergraduates in this cross-disciplinary research and integrate theresearch into the curriculum of core courses in the Departments of Biology and Geography atSonoma State University.Sonoma State University is located within 20 km of the study area,which is easilyaccessible to PI s and their students.Previous analyses of the relationship betweenenvironmental variation and SOD spread have concentrated on the most heavily impactedregions in Marin County where the pathogen has infected trees throughout the study area.Incontrast,the present study focuses on SOD spread into new areas that presently show no sign ofinfection.We believe that this approach will contribute substantially towards a greaterunderstanding of the biology of this pathogen and to our understanding of the ecology andgenetics of plant-pathogen interactions.The timing of this study will also ensure involvement bymotivated undergraduates at Sonoma State University who wish to participate in research thateveryone recognizes is of critical significance to the larger community.

生物学入侵是全球环境变化的主要组成部分。雾化可能导致生物多样性降低并经常导致永久性变化，并导致无创植物病原体在世界许多部门的生态系统产生了巨大影响。疾病动力学的基本特性反映了作用于病原体分散和生命史上的遗传异质性和环境力量。一种解决挑战所需的多学科方法1）将病原体范围的过程融合到遗传级别的范围内，并将其整合到环境因素中，并将其整合到环境因素中。 phytophthora ramorum的时空动力学，一种新兴的，可能是异国情调的病原体，在加利福尼亚沿海沿海橡木和塔诺克斯引起致命性疾病，这种疾病被称为突然的橡树死亡（SOD），在几个县中，尚有研究机构的机制和宿主的环境。斑块的扩散到模型在这种植物疾病跨景观中分布的变化的模型。模型预测将确定影响索德分布的关键因素，并提供橡树林地中栖息地丧失的预测，这是由于SOD的结果。这些特性描述了一种多学科计划，描述了一种多学科的植物疾病，以预测植物的疾病。研究人员，而不是研究人员之间的协作努力，以攻击单一问题。我们的目标是完成以下操作：1。基于几个关键环境因素之间的关系，基于统计的模型，预测thelandscape的SOD风险的空间模式，这些因素包括对先前感染的位置的接近性，即托管背景，托管的结构，景观。一种机械模型，该模型基于对宿主在良好的空间尺度上的病原体扩散以及有利于病原体生殖和分散的环境条件之间的病原体扩散的经验研究来预测病原体活性和宿主敏感性的空间模式。探索生物学和地理学系的核心课程课程。SOMONAMA州立大学位于研究领域的20公里以内，PI及其学生易于访问。对环境变化和SOD蔓延之间的关系分析遍布整个县，该县的范围内的跨度已集中在Marin中，Marin in partegent in Marin in partegent in Marin in partegent in Marin counter in partegent in Marin counter of Marin in partegent in Marin counter in partegention county countion countion in corne and sod sod sod sod sod sod sod sod evern countion。本研究的重点是对立的，本研究的重点是传播到目前没有迹象的新领域。我们相信，这种方法将对这种病原体的生物学的更大理解以及我们对我们对植物path的生态学的理解以及我们对这项研究的生态学的理解的理解。对较大的社区的重要意义。