CMG: Development of Spatio-Temporal and Multi-Resolution Methods for Detecting the Impact of Volcanic and Solar Forcings in Climate

CMG：开发时空和多分辨率方法来检测火山和太阳强迫对气候的影响

• 批准号: 0327936
• 负责人: Philippe Naveau
• 金额: $ 29.89万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2007-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0327936&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CMG; Development; Spatio; Temporal; Multi

This investigation is aimed at developing mathematical methods to identify evidence of volcanic eruptions and variations in the intensity of solar radiation in high resolution proxy climate data of the past thousand years. This is a challenging problem because the records are incomplete and nonstationary, and the climatic response to solar variability and volcanic activity is unknown and probably highly nonlinear. Questions motivating the work are: (1) What has been the influence of explosive volcanism on climate? (2) Has there been a climatic effect of variations in solar irradiance, and if so what modes of climate variability are affected? (3) How much uncertainty in climate proxies, reconstructions, and predictions can be explained by solar and volcanic forcing? The approach is to focus first on the temporal aspects of solar and volcanic signals, then to develop extraction methods for analyzing spatial features on the globe with irregularly spaced data, and finally to combine these in a spatio-temporal model. Techniques to be employed include using 2-D wavelets to characterize spatial features and extending concepts of Kalman filter estimation to non-Gaussian signals. The methods will be tested through statistical simulations using the NCAR Community Climate Model. This research will help to separate the climatic changes caused by human activity from the background of natural variability. It is supported jointly by the Division of Atmospheric Sciences and the Division of Mathematical Sciences through the NSF program, Collaborations in Mathematical Geosciences (CMG).

这项调查的目的是开发数学方法，在过去一千年的高分辨率代理气候数据中识别火山喷发的证据和太阳辐射强度的变化。这是一个具有挑战性的问题，因为记录是不完整和非平稳的，气候对太阳变化和火山活动的反应是未知的，可能是高度非线性的。激发这项工作的问题是：(1)火山爆发对气候的影响是什么？(2)太阳辐照度的变化是否存在气候效应，如果存在，影响的气候变化模式是什么？(3)气候变化、重建和预测的不确定性在多大程度上可以用太阳和火山的强迫来解释？方法是首先关注太阳和火山信号的时间方面，然后开发提取方法，用不规则间隔的数据分析地球上的空间特征，最后将它们结合在一个时空模型中。可以采用的技术包括使用二维小波来表征空间特征，以及将卡尔曼滤波估计的概念扩展到非高斯信号。这些方法将通过使用NCAR社区气候模型的统计模拟进行测试。这项研究将有助于将人类活动引起的气候变化与自然变化的背景分开。它由大气科学部和数学科学部通过NSF计划--数学地球科学合作(CMG)--联合支持。