DMUU: Integrating Methods and Identifying Priorities

DMUU：整合方法并确定优先事项

• 批准号: 0345800
• 负责人: Thomas Dietz
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-06-15 至 2007-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0345800&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DMUU; Integrating; Methods; Identifying; Priorities

Climate change challenges our ability to make decisions under uncertainty. The increasing ability to make predictions of key meteorological variables as much as two years in advance adds to the challenge. While forecasts of future conditions are fraught with uncertainty, they have increasing predictive ability. A number of tools and methods have been developed in various disciplines to aid in making decisions under uncertainty, including risk analysis, environmental valuation, institutional design, and public participation. But it is not clear how most of these can be applied to typical decisions made in the face of uncertainty about climate change; nor is it clear how well these tools make use of existing scientific information.This project will hold two workshops and a public symposium that will bring together scientists expert on climate change impacts, researchers who have worked on decision making methods and tools, and those who have to make critical decisions in the face of uncertainty about climate change. The goals of the project are to inform scientists about the kinds of research that will help decision makers deal with climate change and to inform decision makers about the knowledge, tools, and methods that already exist and may be of help to them. The project will result in an integration and synthesis of literatures on decision support methods that are not well integrated at this point. The project also will produce both an agenda for future research and guidance for decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of existing tools. Products from the workshops will be disseminated to the broader community. This developmental award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).

气候变化挑战了我们在不确定性下做出决策的能力。对关键气象变量的预测能力日益增强，甚至可以提前两年预测，这加大了这一挑战。虽然对未来状况的预测充满了不确定性，但它们的预测能力正在增强。许多工具和方法已经在不同的学科中发展起来，以帮助在不确定的情况下做出决策，包括风险分析、环境评估、制度设计和公众参与。但目前尚不清楚，这些方法中的大多数如何适用于在气候变化不确定的情况下做出的典型决策；也不清楚这些工具在多大程度上利用了现有的科学信息。该项目将举办两次研讨会和一次公开研讨会，与会者包括研究气候变化影响的科学家、研究决策方法和工具的研究人员，以及面对气候变化的不确定性必须做出关键决策的研究人员。该项目的目标是让科学家了解有助于决策者应对气候变化的研究类型，并让决策者了解已经存在的可能对他们有所帮助的知识、工具和方法。该项目将导致对决策支持方法的文献的整合和综合，这些文献在这一点上没有很好地整合。该项目还将为未来的研究制定议程，并为决策者提供有关现有工具优缺点的指导。讲习班的产品将分发给更广泛的社区。该发展奖是2003财政年度人类和社会动态优先领域不确定决策特别竞赛的一部分。