Validation of a Numerical Granular Flow Simulation Model for Pyroclastic Flows and Debris Avalanches

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Pyroclastic flows and volcanic debris avalanches are among the most hazardous volcanic events and have been responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in the 20th century. However, reliable hazards assessments are difficult to accomplish and improved modeling is a major key to improved assessments. This research will test a recently developed, very powerful, flow model code (TITAN2D) and compare its output to a unique body of field data (from select sites with very high quality data). The intellectual merit of this research is to increase our understanding of the physics of hazardous phenomena, and to aid the use of TITAN2D via its validation, calibration, and code improvements. Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world. Its focus is on physics issues, on solving the right equations for the problem at hand. With validation it is anticipated that this model could be used in a reasonably reliable way to investigate flow processes, to aid hazards and risk assessments, make hazards and risk maps, and contribute to hazards mitigation. The information intended for validation exercises include remarkably detailed data on 30 large to major dome collapses and slope failures. Broader impacts include societal benefits through improved understanding of hazardous processes, improved hazards assessments and risk communication, and more effective zoning in volcanic and slope instability crises. This research should contribute data and foster computer code enhancements by collaborating SUNY scientists that will make the method generally more effective and reliable for applications. Research results will be communicated frequently and interactively to code developers, and disseminated in timely fashion at meetings and workshops, by publications, and through the web.