RAPID: Pyroclastic Surge Dynamics in the 2010 Merapi Eruption

RAPID：2010 年默拉皮火山喷发的火山碎屑涌动动力学

• 批准号: 1125069
• 负责人: Barry Voight
• 金额: $ 4.95万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2014-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1125069&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Pyroclastic; Surge; Dynamics; 2010

This is a RAPID award to investigate the dynamics of pyroclastic surge deposits created by the catastrophic 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Pyroclastic flows and surges cause most casualties in volcanic eruptions but understanding of surge processes is lagging due to the paucity of major events such as the one displayed by Merapi during its recent eruption phase. This investigator and his team have developed a statistically constrained procedure for lava dome-collapse type pyroclastic flows to estimate areas of inundation following an active event. Dynamic behavior of associated surges can be included by consideration of the physics of surge flow, mass flux and air entrainment, and local topography. The method has been applied to several volcano crises, notably the 2006 eruption of Merapi and 2007 and 2010 crises at Montserrat. It is also being used for hazards evaluations at other locations worldwide, but while of proven utility it is restricted to a particular type of flow process. The recent Oct-Nov 2010 eruption at Merapi offers a rare "Once-in-a-Century" opportunity to extend and constrain physics-based modeling to column-collapse type pyroclastic flows with associated ash-cloud surges. This Merapi eruption started in its traditional dome-collapse mode but developed into a major VEI~4 explosive eruption, the largest eruption there since (at least) 1872. The likelihood of an explosive eruption on this scale was forecast by the PI and his team, and now that it has occurred it is incumbent to maximize the scientific and other impacts. It is proposed to further refine the surge model for Merapi that would carry over to other flow modeling methods such as Titan2D which inadequately address the surge issue. The proposed study of the surges addresses a target of opportunity and needs to be carried out soon because the thin deposits are perishable and key information would be lost. Thus a RAPID award is the most appropriate mechanism for supporting the proposed work. The broader impacts are many and include as beneficiaries of this research organizations that foster risk mitigation planning and crisis response, such as volcano observatories worldwide, academic advisors to crises, and those such as the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) that often aid crisis responses generally. Ultimately it is the often-large populations living on the flanks of dangerous volcanoes who may benefit most. Findings are expected to be disseminated to academics and practitioners through rapid communication at international and national scientific meetings and workshops, lectures at academic and government institutions and local observatories, abstracts of presentations in published works, and articles in peer-reviewed high-profile scientific journals, and electronic media.

这是一项 RAPID 奖项，旨在研究 2010 年印度尼西亚默拉皮火山灾难性喷发造成的火山碎屑涌流沉积物的动力学。 火山碎屑流和火山喷发造成了火山喷发中的大部分人员伤亡，但由于很少发生像默拉皮火山最近喷发阶段那样的重大事件，因此对火山喷发过程的了解还很滞后。 这位研究人员和他的团队开发了一种针对熔岩穹顶塌陷型火山碎屑流的统计约束程序，以估计活动事件后的淹没区域。通过考虑喘振流、质量通量和空气夹带以及局部地形的物理特性，可以包括相关喘振的动态行为。该方法已应用于多次火山危机，特别是 2006 年默拉皮火山喷发以及 2007 年和 2010 年蒙特塞拉特火山危机。它也被用于世界其他地方的危害评估，但虽然其实用性已得到验证，但它仅限于特定类型的流程。 最近 2010 年 10 月至 11 月发生的默拉皮火山喷发提供了一个难得的“百年一遇”的机会，可以将基于物理的模型扩展到与火山灰云涌相关的柱塌陷型火山碎屑流。这次默拉皮火山喷发以传统的穹顶塌陷模式开始，但后来发展成为一次主要的 VEI~4 爆炸性喷发，这是（至少）1872 年以来最大的一次喷发。PI 和他的团队预测了这种规模的爆炸性喷发的可能性，现在它已经发生了，有责任最大限度地发挥科学和其他影响。建议进一步细化 Merapi 的喘振模型，该模型将延续到其他流量建模方法，例如 Titan2D，这些方法不能充分解决喘振问题。拟议的激增研究涉及一个机会目标，需要尽快进行，因为稀薄的沉积物容易腐烂，关键信息将会丢失。因此，RAPID 奖项是支持拟议工作的最合适机制。 更广泛的影响是多方面的，包括作为促进风险缓解规划和危机应对的研究组织的受益者，例如世界各地的火山观测站、危机学术顾问，以及经常帮助应对危机的世界火山观测组织（WOVO）等。 最终，受益最多的可能是生活在危险火山两侧的大量人口。预计研究结果将通过国际和国家科学会议和研讨会上的快速交流、学术和政府机构以及当地天文台的讲座、已发表作品中的演示摘要以及同行评审的高知名度科学期刊和电子媒体上的文章向学者和从业人员传播。