RAPID: Pyroclastic Surge Dynamics in the 2010 Merapi Eruption

这是一项RAPID奖，用于研究2010年印度尼西亚默拉皮火山灾难性喷发所产生的火山碎屑涌动沉积物的动力学。火山碎屑流和涌浪在火山爆发中造成的伤亡最多，但由于缺乏像默拉皮火山最近爆发阶段所显示的重大事件，对涌浪过程的理解滞后。该研究人员和他的团队开发了一种统计约束程序，用于估算活动事件后熔岩穹丘崩塌型火山碎屑流的淹没区域。相关浪涌的动力行为可以通过考虑浪涌流动、质量通量和空气夹带以及局部地形的物理特性来考虑。该方法已应用于几次火山危机，特别是2006年默拉皮火山爆发和2007年和2010年蒙特塞拉特火山危机。它也被用于世界其他地方的危害评价，但是，虽然证明了它的效用，但仅限于一种特定类型的流动过程。最近的2010年10月至11月的默拉皮火山喷发提供了一个罕见的“百年一遇”的机会，将基于物理的模型扩展和限制到柱状塌陷型火山碎屑流和相关的火山灰云涌动。这次默拉皮火山喷发以传统的圆顶崩塌模式开始，但后来发展成为一次VEI~4级的大爆发，这是自1872年以来最大的一次喷发。PI和他的团队预测了这种规模的爆发的可能性，现在它已经发生了，因此有责任最大限度地发挥科学和其他影响。建议进一步完善Merapi的喘振模型，这将延续到其他流建模方法（如Titan2D），这些方法不能充分解决喘振问题。拟议的涌流研究解决了一个有机会的目标，需要尽快进行，因为薄沉积物易腐烂，关键信息可能会丢失。因此，RAPID奖励是支持拟议工作的最适当机制。更广泛的影响是多方面的，包括作为这项研究的受益者，促进风险缓解规划和危机应对的组织，如世界各地的火山观测站、危机的学术顾问，以及经常一般协助危机应对的世界火山观测站组织（WOVO）。最终，生活在危险火山两侧的人口往往是最大的受益者。预计研究结果将通过国际和国家科学会议和讲习班的快速交流、学术和政府机构及地方天文台的讲座、已出版作品的报告摘要、同行评议的高知名度科学期刊的文章和电子媒体传播给学术界和实践者。

This is a RAPID award to investigate the dynamics of pyroclastic surge deposits created by the catastrophic 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Pyroclastic flows and surges cause most casualties in volcanic eruptions but understanding of surge processes is lagging due to the paucity of major events such as the one displayed by Merapi during its recent eruption phase. This investigator and his team have developed a statistically constrained procedure for lava dome-collapse type pyroclastic flows to estimate areas of inundation following an active event. Dynamic behavior of associated surges can be included by consideration of the physics of surge flow, mass flux and air entrainment, and local topography. The method has been applied to several volcano crises, notably the 2006 eruption of Merapi and 2007 and 2010 crises at Montserrat. It is also being used for hazards evaluations at other locations worldwide, but while of proven utility it is restricted to a particular type of flow process. The recent Oct-Nov 2010 eruption at Merapi offers a rare "Once-in-a-Century" opportunity to extend and constrain physics-based modeling to column-collapse type pyroclastic flows with associated ash-cloud surges. This Merapi eruption started in its traditional dome-collapse mode but developed into a major VEI~4 explosive eruption, the largest eruption there since (at least) 1872. The likelihood of an explosive eruption on this scale was forecast by the PI and his team, and now that it has occurred it is incumbent to maximize the scientific and other impacts. It is proposed to further refine the surge model for Merapi that would carry over to other flow modeling methods such as Titan2D which inadequately address the surge issue. The proposed study of the surges addresses a target of opportunity and needs to be carried out soon because the thin deposits are perishable and key information would be lost. Thus a RAPID award is the most appropriate mechanism for supporting the proposed work. The broader impacts are many and include as beneficiaries of this research organizations that foster risk mitigation planning and crisis response, such as volcano observatories worldwide, academic advisors to crises, and those such as the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) that often aid crisis responses generally. Ultimately it is the often-large populations living on the flanks of dangerous volcanoes who may benefit most. Findings are expected to be disseminated to academics and practitioners through rapid communication at international and national scientific meetings and workshops, lectures at academic and government institutions and local observatories, abstracts of presentations in published works, and articles in peer-reviewed high-profile scientific journals, and electronic media.