Edifice Sector Failure at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Documenting the Failure Dynamics of a Hydrothermally-Altered Edifice in Three-Dimensions

9909673沃伊特和埃尔斯沃思火山的潜在灾难性结构故障和相关的危害影响现在已经得到了很好的认识，但除了在圣海伦山的研究，崩溃的机制知之甚少。 1997年12月蒙特塞拉特主要建筑物的倒塌为全面分析倒塌情况提供了一个难得的机会。 这次失败发生在苏弗里埃山火山的南侧，产生了到达海岸的碎片雪崩，并引发了火山爆发。 蒙特塞拉特火山观测站收集了大量火山监测数据;我们公司之一BV是该组织的成员。 我们建议分析这座火山的变形和稳定性，使用强大的计算机建模工具，以前没有使用火山分析。 该研究将评估代表逐渐突然倒塌的现实模型，以严格的方式检查地震荷载的影响，并考虑根据监测数据预测倒塌的可能性。 这项研究的结果很可能对其他火山潜在结构破坏的评估产生重大影响，对火山灾害管理具有重要意义。

9909673Voight and ElsworthThe potential for catastrophic structural failure of volcanoes and related hazards implications are now well recognized, but apart from a study at Mount St Helens, the mechanisms of collapse are poorly understood. The major edifice failure on Montserrat in December 1997 provides an unusual opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of collapse. The failure occurred on the altered south flank of Soufriere Hills volcano, generated a debris avalanche that reached the coast, and triggered a volcanic blast. The failure has been well documented, and abundant volcano monitoring data have been collected by Montserrat Volcano Observatory; one of us, BV, is a member of this organization. We propose to analyze the deformation and stability of this volcano, using powerful computer-modeling tools not used previously in volcano analyses. The study will evaluate realistic models representing gradual to sudden collapse, examine the effects of earthquake loading in a rigorous fashion, and consider the potential for collapse prediction from monitored data. The results of this study are likely to have a significant impact on evaluations of potential structural failure at other volcanoes, with an important bearing on volcano hazard management.