Doctoral Dissertation Research: Can Efficient Learning Mitigate the Bullwhip Effect?

本文研究了不同培训协议和协调机会对多级串行供应链中订单性质和绩效的影响。具体来说，我们研究了系统范围内的培训和团队沟通在多大程度上有助于缓解“牛鞭效应”，即随着人们越来越接近生产源头，供应链中订单的可变性就会增加。这种现象在实地和实验室都有记录，对企业和消费者来说都是普遍的、持久的和昂贵的，不能用标准理论完全解释。为了检验培训和沟通的影响，我们采用了著名的“啤酒分销游戏”，在这个游戏中，实验对象被分配到一个零售商、批发商、分销商或制造商的角色，在一个连续的供应链中战略性地相互作用——在多个时期订购和运输啤酒以满足客户的需求。我们将比较经过培训的受试者在标准基线情况下的决策和供应链绩效，在标准基线情况下，个体与其他两种治疗方法独立制定策略。在全系统培训条件下，参与者首先获得了作为中心计划者的学习经验，该中心计划者为整个供应链做出订购决策，并能够观察其行动在全系统范围内的直接结果。在团队沟通条件下，鼓励来自同一供应链的参与者在游戏前讨论团队策略。我们预计在这两种情况下牛鞭效应都会减弱。我们将进一步研究每种方法在不同需求情况下的表现。以前的工作已经探索了内部或操作创新的影响，例如共享销售点信息对供应链绩效的影响。然而，基本上所有先前的工作都使用了没有或很少培训经验的天真参与者，并且阻碍了沟通。我们的工作将产生广泛的影响，它将提供一个急需的测试，即人力资源活动，如培训和沟通，是否会增强个人的学习和行为，并改善现实世界供应链中的系统性能，以及其他涉及延迟和多个参与者的动态决策任务。

The proposed research studies the effect of several training protocols and coordination opportunities on the nature of the orders made in and the performance of multi-echelon serial supply chains. Specifically, we investigate the extent to which system-wide training and team communication help mitigate the "Bullwhip Effect", the observation that the variability of orders in supply chains increases as one moves closer to the source of production. This phenomenon, documented both in the field and in the laboratory, is prevalent, persistent and costly to both firms and consumers, and cannot be fully explained by standard theories. To examine the impact of training and communication, we employ the well-known "Beer Distribution Game" in which experimental subjects assigned the role of a retailer, a wholesaler, a distributor or a manufacturer in a serial supply chain strategically interact -- ordering and shipping beer to meet customer demand over multiple periods. We will compare trained subjects' decisions and supply chain performance in the standard baseline case where individuals formulate their strategies independently with two other treatments. In the system-wide training condition, participants first obtain a learning experience as a central planner who makes ordering decisions for the whole supply chain and is able to observe the immediate system-wide outcome of her actions. In the team communication condition, participants from the same supply chain are encouraged to discuss team strategies prior to the game. We expect the bullwhip effect to be reduced in both conditions. We will further examine the performance of each approach under different demand scenarios. Previous work has explored the impact of internal or operational innovations such as sharing point of sale information on supply chain performance, However, essentially all prior work uses naive participants with no or little training experience and prevents communication. Our work will have broad impact to the extent that it will provide a much-needed test of whether human resource activities like training and communications will enhance individual learning and behavior and improve system performance in real-world supply chains as well as other dynamic decision tasks involving delays and multiple participants.