Doctoral Dissertation Research: Can Efficient Learning Mitigate the Bullwhip Effect?

这项拟议的研究研究了几种培训方案和协调机会对多梯级系列供应链中订单的性质和绩效的影响。具体地说，我们调查了全系统培训和团队沟通在多大程度上有助于缓解“牛鞭效应”，即观察到供应链中订单的可变性随着一个人离生产来源越近而增加。这种现象在现场和实验室都有记载，对公司和消费者来说都是普遍的、持久的和代价高昂的，不能用标准理论完全解释。为了检验培训和沟通的影响，我们采用了著名的“啤酒分销游戏”，在该游戏中，实验对象分配了一系列供应链中的零售商、批发商、分销商或制造商的角色，进行战略性互动--订购和运输啤酒，以满足多个时期的客户需求。我们将比较训练有素的受试者在标准基线情况下的决策和供应链表现，在标准基线情况下，个体独立地与其他两种处理方法制定他们的策略。在全系统范围的培训条件下，参与者首先获得作为中央计划员的学习经验，他为整个供应链做出订购决策，并能够观察她的行动在整个系统范围内的即时结果。在团队沟通的情况下，鼓励来自同一供应链的参与者在比赛前讨论团队战略。我们预计牛鞭效应在这两种情况下都会减弱。我们将进一步研究每种方法在不同需求场景下的性能。以前的工作已经探索了内部或运营创新(如共享销售点信息)对供应链绩效的影响，然而，几乎所有先前的工作都使用没有或几乎没有培训经验的幼稚参与者，从而阻碍了沟通。我们的工作将产生广泛的影响，因为它将提供一个亟需的测试，以检验培训和沟通等人力资源活动是否会增强个人的学习和行为，并改善现实世界供应链以及其他涉及延迟和多个参与者的动态决策任务中的系统性能。

The proposed research studies the effect of several training protocols and coordination opportunities on the nature of the orders made in and the performance of multi-echelon serial supply chains. Specifically, we investigate the extent to which system-wide training and team communication help mitigate the "Bullwhip Effect", the observation that the variability of orders in supply chains increases as one moves closer to the source of production. This phenomenon, documented both in the field and in the laboratory, is prevalent, persistent and costly to both firms and consumers, and cannot be fully explained by standard theories. To examine the impact of training and communication, we employ the well-known "Beer Distribution Game" in which experimental subjects assigned the role of a retailer, a wholesaler, a distributor or a manufacturer in a serial supply chain strategically interact -- ordering and shipping beer to meet customer demand over multiple periods. We will compare trained subjects' decisions and supply chain performance in the standard baseline case where individuals formulate their strategies independently with two other treatments. In the system-wide training condition, participants first obtain a learning experience as a central planner who makes ordering decisions for the whole supply chain and is able to observe the immediate system-wide outcome of her actions. In the team communication condition, participants from the same supply chain are encouraged to discuss team strategies prior to the game. We expect the bullwhip effect to be reduced in both conditions. We will further examine the performance of each approach under different demand scenarios. Previous work has explored the impact of internal or operational innovations such as sharing point of sale information on supply chain performance, However, essentially all prior work uses naive participants with no or little training experience and prevents communication. Our work will have broad impact to the extent that it will provide a much-needed test of whether human resource activities like training and communications will enhance individual learning and behavior and improve system performance in real-world supply chains as well as other dynamic decision tasks involving delays and multiple participants.