Climatology of Forecast Skill and Major Forecast Failures over North America and Adjacent Waters

北美及邻近水域预报技巧和主要预报失败的气候学

• 批准号: 0450684
• 负责人: Lynn McMurdie
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-06-15 至 2009-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0450684&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Climatology; Forecast; Skill; Major; Failures

In this project the PIs will document regional differences of short-term numerical forecast skill and frequency of large forecast errors for the North American continent and the surrounding ocean areas, and will appraise the differences in skill among several international operational numerical models. The relationship between forecast skill and large-scale flow regime will also be examined. Furthermore, for individual events that experienced major forecast failures, the PIs will explore the effects of model errors in terms of model physics on forecast errors, and the effects of initial condition error by using a multi-analysis ensemble approach. This study will address the questions of whether particular operational forecast models experience fewer forecast failures, whether particular regions experience larger forecast errors, whether there are particular regions that suffer frequent and/or large forecast failure events, and if these large forecast failure events are associated with obvious, large initial condition errors. Graduate students will participate in the research.

在这个项目中，项目执行员将记录北美大陆和周围海洋地区短期数值预报技能的区域差异和大的预报误差频率，并将评价几个国际业务数值模式之间的技能差异。预报技巧和大尺度流态之间的关系也将被检查。此外，对于经历重大预报失败的个别事件，PI将通过使用多分析集合方法探索模式物理学方面的模式误差对预报误差的影响，以及初始条件误差的影响。这项研究将解决的问题，是否特定的业务预测模型经历较少的预测失败，是否特定地区经历较大的预测误差，是否有特定地区遭受频繁和/或大的预测失败事件，如果这些大的预测失败事件与明显的，大的初始条件错误。研究生将参与研究。