Collaborative Research: Inflation and Redistribution

合作研究：通货膨胀与再分配

• 批准号: 0519265
• 负责人: Matthias Doepke
• 金额: $ 13.29万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-08-01 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0519265&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Inflation; Redistribution

This proposal outlines research on the redistribution effects of inflation. Redistribution of real wealth is an immediate consequence of any unanticipated change in the price level. Inflation lowers the real value of nominal assets and liabilities, and thereby shifts wealth from lenders to borrowers. Existing studies have focused on the revaluation of government debt. The research described in this proposal considers the revaluation of all nominal assets and liabilities in the economy. The goal is to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the redistribution effects of inflation, as well as their implications for macroeconomic aggregates and welfare.The intellectual merit of the proposed activity is that it enhances our understanding of the real effects of inflation. The proposal achieves this objective by employing two analytical tools. The first is an empirical framework used to document exposure to inflation risk in the United States, for different sectors as well as age and wealth groups of households. The framework combines sectoral data from the Flow of Funds Accounts, household-level data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, as well as data on the payoff structure and market prices of nominal assets to construct a consistent array of nominal positions. To gauge the duration of these positions, future payment streams are estimated by date, agent, and type of nominal instrument. The second tool is a dynamic general equilibrium model that can be used to assess the economic effects of redistribution shocks. The model allows for heterogeneity along the same dimensions as the data; it is calibrated to match key macroeconomic aggregates as well as properties of the wealth and income distribution. It can also accommodate various fiscal policy scenarios that may arise in response to an inflation episode. The proposal describes an application that uses the tools to quantify the wealth redistribution that would occur if the United States were to enter another moderate inflation episode similar to that of the 1970s. This application leads to three main results. First, even moderate inflation can cause a sizable redistribution of wealth. The main winners from inflation would be the government and young households with mortgage debt, while the main losers would be old households and, in light of the recent surge in foreign debt, foreigners. Second, the model shows that the responses of losers (old lenders) and winners (young borrowers) do not cancel out, so that redistribution due to inflation has aggregate effects. The magnitude of these effects is comparable to those in representative-agent models with monetary frictions, but the effects arising from redistribution persist long after the end of the inflation episode. Third, the welfare effect on domestic households is the opposite of what standard monetary models generate: inflation-induced redistribution has a positive effect on the weighted aggregate welfare. Overall, the application demonstrates that redistribution is an important channel for the impact of inflation on household behavior, economic aggregates, and welfare. The broader impact of the proposed research derives from its implications for monetary policy, as well as the design of institutions that help control inflation. The existing application shows that households have important reasons to disagree about monetary policy. The proposal describes a number of additional policy applications. First, the setup will be used to assess the redistribution effects of stabilization policy. Here the objective is to quantify the wealth effects of U.S. monetary policy in the 1980s. A second extension will explore the political economy implications of the findings. The existing results show that there are circumstances such that a majority of households stands to gain from inflation-induced redistribution. Moreover, the fiscal policy package that accompanies an inflationary episode is a key factor in shaping public support for inflation policies. The proposal outlines an empirical investigation of the degree to which redistribution concerns can explain the emergence of historical episodes of high inflation, as well as an extended theoretical analysis of the political economy of inflation.

该提案概述了对通货膨胀的再分配效应的研究。真实的财富的再分配是价格水平任何意外变化的直接后果。 通货膨胀降低了名义资产和负债的真实的价值，从而将财富从贷方转移到借方。 现有的研究集中在政府债务的重新估值上。本提案中描述的研究考虑了经济中所有名义资产和负债的重新估值。目标是对通货膨胀的再分配影响及其对宏观经济总量和福利的影响进行全面的定量评估，拟议活动的学术价值在于，它提高了我们对通货膨胀的真实的影响的理解。该提案通过采用两种分析工具来实现这一目标。第一个是一个实证框架，用于记录美国不同部门以及不同年龄和财富的家庭所面临的通货膨胀风险。该框架结合了来自资金流动账户的部门数据、来自消费者金融调查的家庭层面数据以及关于名义资产的回报结构和市场价格的数据，以构建一系列一致的名义头寸。为了衡量这些头寸的持续时间，未来的支付流是根据日期、代理人和名义工具的类型来估计的。 第二个工具是动态一般均衡模型，可用于评估再分配冲击的经济影响。该模型考虑到数据在相同维度上的沿着异质性;它经过校准，以匹配关键的宏观经济总量以及财富和收入分配的性质。它还可以适应可能出现的各种财政政策情景， 对通货膨胀的反应。 该提案描述了一个应用程序，该应用程序使用这些工具来量化财富再分配，如果美国进入另一个类似于2009年的温和通胀时期， 70年代这种应用导致三个主要结果。首先，即使是温和的通货膨胀也会导致相当大的财富再分配。通货膨胀的主要赢家将是政府和背负抵押贷款债务的年轻家庭，而主要输家将是老年家庭，鉴于最近外债激增，外国人也将成为输家。其次，该模型表明，输家（老贷款人）和赢家（年轻借款人）的反应不会相互抵消，因此，由于通货膨胀导致的再分配具有总体效应。这些影响的大小与具有货币摩擦的代表代理模型中的影响相当，但再分配产生的影响在通胀事件结束后仍会持续很长时间。第三，对国内家庭的福利影响与标准货币模型产生的结果相反：通货膨胀引发的再分配对加权总福利有积极影响。总的来说，应用程序表明，重新分配是一个重要的 通货膨胀对家庭行为、经济总量和福利影响的渠道。 拟议研究的更广泛影响来自其对货币政策的影响，以及有助于控制通胀的机构设计。现有的申请显示， 家庭有重要的理由不同意货币政策。该提案描述了 更多的政策应用。首先，该设置将用于评估重新分配 稳定政策的影响。本文的目标是量化20世纪80年代美国货币政策的财富效应。 第二个扩展将探讨研究结果的政治经济影响。 现有的结果表明，在某些情况下，大多数家庭将从通货膨胀引发的再分配中获益。此外，伴随通货膨胀的一揽子财政政策是影响公众支持通货膨胀政策的关键因素。 该提案概述了对再分配关切在多大程度上可以解释历史上高通胀事件的出现的实证调查，以及对通胀政治经济学的扩展理论分析。