BE MUSES: Implications of Automotive Fuel Economy and Emissions Policies on Materials Flows: A Life Cycle Approach Integrating Engineering, Public Policy, and Market Decisions

对汽车的需求是现代社会已知的最大的物流来源之一。这一需求也占了美国温室气体、标准污染物和有害空气排放的很大一部分。由于新的公共政策被认为是为了解决这些问题，科学目前无法预测拟议的公共政策对材料流动和生命周期环境排放的意外后果。因此，这一缪斯计划的首要目标是在物质流动和政策选择之间建立定量关系。有了这笔规划拨款，我们将组建一个专家调查团队，制定一项综合研究建议，以实现以下目标：1)建立严格的科学方法，基于对企业激励、技术设计和生产成本的了解，预测工程设计对一系列政策选项的响应；2)评估市场渗透率；通过基于模型的消费者偏好了解，评估这些响应；以及3)对这些响应对生命周期材料流和环境排放的影响进行量化建模。这些结果将通过客观和定量的建模方法为汽车政策的制定过程提供信息。这项研究的科学影响将包括更清楚地了解技术选择、政策决策和生命周期材料流动和排放之间的关系。更广泛的影响将包括通过集成的、基于系统的建模包开发决策建模工具，使决策者能够评估和优化有关成本、市场接受度和环境影响的技术和政策决策。

Demand for automobiles is the source of materials flows that are among the largest known to modern society. This demand also accounts for a significant portion of US greenhouse gas, criteria pollutant, and hazardous air emissions. As new public policies are considered to address these issues, science is currently unable to predict unintended consequences of proposed public policies on materials flows and life cycle environmental emissions. Consequently, the overarching goal of this MUSES program is to establish quantitative relationships between materials flows and policy options. With this planning grant award, we will form a team of expert investigators that will develop an integrated proposal for research that will accomplish the following: 1) establish a rigorous scientific methodology for predicting engineering design responses to a set of policy options based on an understanding of corporate incentives, technology design, and production costs; 2) evaluate market penetration these responses through model-based understanding of consumer preferences; and, 3) quantitatively model the impact of these responses on life-cycle materials flows and environmental emissions. The outcomes will inform the automotive policy development process through objective and quantitative modeling approaches. The scientific impact of the research will include a clearer understanding of relationships between technology options, policy decisions and life cycle materials flows and emissions. The broader impact will include the development of decision modeling tools through an integrated, systems-based modeling package that will allow decision makers to evaluate and optimize technology and policy decisions with respect to costs, market acceptance, and environmental impacts.