A Cognitive Model of Superstitious Belief

迷信信仰的认知模型

• 批准号: 0542486
• 负责人: Thomas Gilovich
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-04-15 至 2010-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0542486&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Cognitive; Model; Superstitious; Belief

There is a fine line between productive intuition and misleading superstition. The proposed research seeks to explore this fine line by examining how the same intuitive processes that give rise to celebrated instances of creative insight also give rise to common superstition. The focus of this research is on the widespread belief, even on the part of highly educated people, that one ought not to "tempt fate" because to do so would be to increase the chances of a bad outcome coming to pass.The proposed research is designed to test a theoretical model of such beliefs that draws upon previous research indicating that the act of imagination involves many of the same processes and brain structures as perception, and so the mere act of imagining an event gives it an aura of reality that increases its subjective likelihood of occurrence. Because negative outcomes often command more attention than positive outcomes, actions that put one at risk of such outcomes are likely to induce mental processes that make those outcomes seem particularly vivid, fluent, and familiar, and hence enhance their subjective likelihood. The proposed research, then, seeks to understand a common category of superstition-based negative thinking that stands in marked contrast to the excessive optimism documented in most psychological research on the general population. The proposed research will also examine the extent to which this theoretical model can help explain: (1) why people tend to be more optimistic about predicting events that have yet to be determined (e.g., a football game about to be played) than comparable events that have already been determined but whose outcome is not yet known (e.g., a videotaped football game), and (2) why people are reluctant to pursue "sudden death" strategies in which payoffs-good or bad-are resolved in one swift stroke rather than drawn out over time.

生产性直觉和误导性迷信之间只有一线之隔。 拟议中的研究试图探索这一微妙的界限，方法是考察产生创造性洞察力的著名实例的同一直觉过程如何也产生了普遍的迷信。 这项研究的重点是广泛的信念，即使是受过高等教育的人，一个人不应该“冒险”因为这样做会增加坏结果发生的可能性。拟议中的研究旨在测试这种信念的理论模型，该模型借鉴了以前的研究，表明想象行为涉及许多与想象相同的过程和大脑结构。因此，仅仅是想象一个事件的行为就给了它一个现实的光环，增加了它发生的主观可能性。 由于消极结果往往比积极结果更能吸引人的注意力，因此，使一个人处于这种结果风险中的行为很可能会诱发心理过程，使这些结果看起来特别生动，流畅和熟悉，从而提高了他们的主观可能性。 因此，这项拟议中的研究试图了解一种常见的基于迷信的消极思维，这种思维与大多数针对普通人群的心理学研究中记录的过度乐观形成鲜明对比。 拟议中的研究还将考察这一理论模型在多大程度上可以帮助解释：（1）为什么人们倾向于更乐观地预测尚未确定的事件（例如，将要进行的足球比赛）而不是已经确定但其结果还不知道的可比较事件（例如，（2）为什么人们不愿意追求“突然死亡”策略，在这种策略中，收益--好的或坏的--是在一次迅速的中风中解决的，而不是随着时间的推移而延长。