Salvaging the Anchoring and Adjusting Heuristic

挽救锚定和调整启发式

• 批准号: 0091416
• 负责人: Thomas Gilovich
• 金额: $ 9.13万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-05-01 至 2004-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0091416&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Salvaging; Anchoring; Adjusting; Heuristic

What is the likely price of the Dow next year? How long can the patient expect to live? How many lives are likely to be lost in a looming military campaign? Questions such as these confront decision makers every day. The proposed research seeks to understand, and ultimately improve, the precise psychological processes by which such judgments are made. Often such judgments are made by adjusting from some initial starting point. The Dow is at 10,500 right now, so one might estimate it will be at 11,000 next year. The last patient with the same symptoms lived for 6 months, so one might estimate a survival time of one year. Psychologists, economists, and marketing scholars have investigated such "anchoring and adjustment" processes during the past twenty-five years and have found that a person's ultimate judgment tends to be too close to the initial value-i.e., the initial value serves as an "anchor" that biases the ultimate judgment.The present research seeks to build on existing knowledge of anchoring and adjustment processes by pointing out (with empirical justification) an important misunderstanding in the current literature. The proposed experiments are designed to show that the psychological processes invoked by real-world problems like those above are quite different from those invoked in the standard paradigms used to investigate anchoring and adjustment. Real-world problems like those above involve explicit adjustment from the initial value; the standard anchoring paradigm involves simple priming of anchor-consistent information. By directing the field to the true source of anchoring effects in real-world contexts, the proposed research promises to point the way to strategies that can be used to improve the accuracy of important real-world forecasts.

明年道琼斯指数的可能价格是多少？ 病人预计能活多久？ 迫在眉睫的军事行动可能会导致多少人丧生？ 诸如此类的问题每天都摆在决策者面前。 拟议的研究旨在理解并最终改善做出此类判断的精确心理过程。 通常这样的判断是通过从某个初始起点进行调整来做出的。 道琼斯指数目前为 10,500 点，因此人们可能预计明年将达到 11,000 点。 最后一位具有相同症状的患者存活了 6 个月，因此可以估计存活时间为一年。 心理学家、经济学家和市场营销学者在过去二十五年中对这种“锚定和调整”过程进行了研究，发现一个人的最终判断往往过于接近初始值，即初始值充当了使最终判断产生偏差的“锚”。本研究试图建立在锚定和调整过程的现有知识的基础上，指出（并有实证依据）在“锚定和调整”过程中的一个重要误解。 当前文献。 所提出的实验旨在表明，上述现实世界问题所引发的心理过程与用于研究锚定和调整的标准范式所引发的心理过程有很大不同。 诸如上述的现实世界问题涉及对初始值的显式调整；标准锚定范式涉及锚定一致信息的简单启动。 通过将这一领域引向现实世界中锚定效应的真正来源，拟议的研究有望为可用于提高重要现实世界预测准确性的策略指明道路。