Collaborative Research: A Global Theory of Information and its Nonconcavity, with Economics and Social Applications

协作研究：信息及其非凹性的全局理论，以及经济学和社会应用

• 批准号: 0550014
• 负责人: Lones Smith
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-07-01 至 2009-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0550014&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Global; Theory; Information

This project utilizes new tools to develop a tractable theory of information, and then applies it in two decision-theoretic and equilibrium settings. In addition to the theory, the study offers new insights into diverse research areas such as finance, social dynamics and structure, and social networks. There are both theoretical and applied components of this study in the area of social dynamics and structure. The purely theoretical component develops a general theory of the non-concavity of the value of information, when measured in its natural units of sample size. Unlike prior work on the static value of information, this new theory derives the entire schedule of the marginal value of information. Starting with a new model of variable quantity information, the first methods employed for option pricing are used to solve the problem. The applied theory component of the study offers two new insights. First, social change may be punctuated and sudden. In this sense, the non-concavity is a major agent of change. While developed for a static setting, it applies dynamically, leading society only periodically to reevaluate the wisdom of its choices. This forces punctuated social change, where so-called (S,s) rules arise without any fixed costs, and thus small causes can have big effects.Second, the collection of information at the individual level fosters the exchange of information with neighbors, creating a scope for multiple equilibria and coordination failures in the social production of information. In a word, convexity creates a complementarity that encourages multiple equilibria. Ignoring this dimension, the design of labor markets, urban planning, career counseling, and anti-segregation policies might be grossly misguided. The results illustrate the potentially harmful role of mass media in curbing the incentives for decentralized information collection and exchange, and for promoting local uniformity in social behavior.The broader and long-run impacts of this project are far-ranging. For example, increasing returns inherent in the demand for information creates the potential for a generic market failure. In addition, the exchange of information is arguably the main purpose of social networking. Informational networks increasingly appear to play a major role in shaping key social phenomena, such as the diffusion or clustering of employment opportunities, voting patterns, and financial investment attitudes. This project is the first ever to explore the social implications of the fundamental non-concavity in the value of information.The educational impact of this study would spans multiple fields. The development of a tractable, transparent, yet rigorous benchmark model of information provides a tool to illustrate and teach these phenomena in fields where the demand and exchange of information play a central role, such as sociology, public health, telecommunication policy, and education. It enables researchers from these different fields to establish a common ground and vocabulary, and fosters inter-disciplinary work. The insights that information can be usefully measured and that it initially may well have increasing returns, has broader impact for many fields studying informed human behavior--from sociology to psychology. This research also informs optimal policy towards research and development. Furthermore, the analysis of the informational foundations for punctuated social change provides a useful informational tool for those studying the history of science through Thomas Kuhn's paradigm in his (1962) "Structure of Scientific Revolutions."

本计画利用新的工具来发展一个易处理的资讯理论，并将其应用于两个决策理论与均衡设定。 除了理论之外，这项研究还为金融、社会动力学和结构以及社交网络等不同研究领域提供了新的见解。 本研究在社会动力学和结构领域既有理论组成部分，也有应用组成部分。 纯理论部分发展了一种一般理论，即当以样本大小的自然单位来衡量时，信息的价值是不确定的。 与先前关于信息的静态价值的工作不同，这个新理论推导出了信息的边际价值的整个时间表。 本文从一个新的变量信息模型出发，利用期权定价的第一种方法来解决这一问题。该研究的应用理论部分提供了两个新的见解。 首先，社会变革可能是间断性的和突然的。 从这个意义上说，非理性是变革的主要推动者。 虽然它是为静态环境而开发的，但它是动态应用的，只是定期引导社会重新评估其选择的智慧。 这迫使社会变革时断时续，所谓的（S，s）规则在没有任何固定成本的情况下产生，因此小的原因可以产生大的影响。第二，个人层面的信息收集促进了与邻居的信息交换，为社会信息生产中的多重均衡和协调失败创造了空间。 总之，凸性创造了一种互补性，鼓励多重均衡。 忽视这一维度，劳动力市场、城市规划、职业咨询和反隔离政策的设计可能会被严重误导。 结果表明，大众媒体在抑制分散的信息收集和交流的动机，并促进当地的社会行为的一致性的潜在有害作用，这个项目的更广泛和长期的影响是深远的。 例如，对信息的需求所固有的收益不断增加，就有可能造成一般性的市场失灵。 此外，信息交流可以说是社交网络的主要目的。 信息网络似乎越来越多地在塑造关键社会现象方面发挥重要作用，如就业机会的扩散或聚集、投票模式和金融投资态度。 这个项目是有史以来第一个探索信息价值的基本不确定性的社会影响的项目。这个研究的教育影响将跨越多个领域。 开发一个易于处理、透明而又严格的信息基准模型，提供了一种工具，在信息需求和交流发挥核心作用的领域，如社会学、公共卫生、电信政策和教育，说明和教授这些现象。 它使来自这些不同领域的研究人员能够建立共同的基础和词汇，并促进跨学科的工作。 信息可以被有效地测量，并且最初可能具有递增的回报，这一见解对研究知情人类行为的许多领域产生了更广泛的影响-从社会学到心理学。 这项研究还为研究和开发的最佳政策提供了信息。 此外，对间断性社会变革的信息基础的分析，为那些通过托马斯·库恩（1962）的《科学革命的结构》中的范式研究科学史的人提供了有用的信息工具。"