Cyber Systems: collaborative research: Complex Systems Dynamics of Blackouts and Transmission System Upgrades

美国国家科学基金会建议0605848和0606003这项研究的目的是了解国家高压输电网的演变对停电风险的影响。电网通过工程升级的方式发展，例如新的传输线或运营政策。升级是为了避免停电，在控制成本的同时增加用电量。这些力量驱动着复杂的动态，被认为强烈影响停电风险。这种方法是在不同的细节水平上建立这些复杂动态的模型，以调查电网升级的不同选择如何影响停电风险。从智力上讲，电网是非常庞大和复杂的工程系统，理解这些网络是如何演变的是一项科学挑战，涉及工程学、概率论、统计物理学和计算机模拟的组合。这项研究将在支撑我们社会的电网的背景下，促进对复杂工程系统的基本理解。更广泛的影响是，该项目的预期结果是对重大停电进行更好的风险分析，以及确定哪些升级或运营政策可以最好地管理停电风险。这项研究还将开始检验网络基础设施之间的相互作用理论，例如，当停电与通信中断相互作用时。这项研究将有助于教育跨学科学生，包括一些代表性不足的群体，并将结果传达给一系列工程、科学和普通受众。

NSF proposals 0605848 and 0606003The objective of this research is to understand how the risk of blackouts is affected by the evolution of the nations high voltage electrical power transmission grid. The electrical grid evolves by means of engineering upgrades such as new transmission lines or operational policies. The upgrades are done in response to avoiding blackouts and to increasing electricity usage while containing costs. These forces drive complex dynamics that are thought to strongly influence blackout risk. The approach is to develop models of these complex dynamics at various levels of detail in order to investigate how different choices in the upgrade of the grid can affect blackout risk.The intellectual merit is that power grids are very large and complicated engineered systems and understanding how these networks evolve is a scientific challenge involving a combination of engineering, probability, statistical physics and computer simulation. The research will advance the basic understanding of complex engineered systems in the context of the electrical grid that underpins our society. The broader impact is that the expected outcome of the project is better risk analysis of major blackouts and the potential of determining which upgrades or operational policies can best manage the risk of blackouts. The research will also start to examine the theory of interactions between networked infrastructures, as, for example, when power blackouts interact with interruptions to communications. The research will help to educate interdisciplinary students, including some underrepresented groups, and the results will be communicated to a range of engineering, scientific and general audiences.